Opposition parties rarely win elections, governments lose elections, the old saying goes. It is true also that African governments rarely lose elections, not especially to mediocre opponents - and there are many of them around. With nearly nine months to the August 2022 elections, electoral pundits are putting a wager on either government-opposition (Jubilee/UDA) or opposition–government (Jubilee-ODM-OKA) formations winning the polls. Whatever it is, government and opposition will both be winners and losers next year. As we saw in 2007, a tightly fought election carries numerous risks especially in a dysfunctional democracy such as ours. Compare that to 2002. I recently interviewed a renowned Kenyan jurist who laughed off the idea that a wave akin to that of 2002 is in the offing with the opposition-government formation riding it to victory.

“I’v edone my own investigation people are getting to accept that it will be a race between DP William Ruto and Raila Odinga. And as of now, Ruto will beat Raila.”