As cautious optimism for Kenya’s presidential election continues to grip the country, the numbers are trickling in thick and fast at the Bomas of Kenya.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries (IEBC) clerks are racing against time to process the final results for a winner to be declared before the lapse of the seven-day period provided by law on Tuesday.
And as the patience wears thin and tempers flare in a contest that will undoubtedly go down to the wire, we examine the numbers that the leading candidates, Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, have amassed so far and some of the regions under their holds so far.
In a tally conducted by The Standard, it emerged that Raila, the Azimio flag bearer, was dominating in 26 counties under his compared to Ruto of Kenya Kwanza’s 21 in the results from 267 counties out of a total 291. These are preliminary results from form 34Bs from the 267 constituencies obtained from IEBC’s portal and independently tallied by The Standard. Some have been verified by the electoral agency at Bomas, a process that would eventually determine the winner.
According to our compilation, Raila has maintained a foothold in counties where he has traditionally enjoyed support such as Siaya where he garnered 371,201 votes, Homa Bay 623,213, Kisumu 306,194 but fared poorly in Embu 25,922, Murang’a 73,539 and Meru 79,842.
In the same counties, Ruto managed 4,307 in Siaya, 11,173 (Homa Bay), 8,451 (Kisumu), but got 130,172 (Embu), 343,481 (Murang’a) and 369,360 in Meru. Other counties where Raila has taken the lead include Taita Taveta, Machakos, Kitui, Kilifi, Kakamega, Kwale, Garissa, Turkana, Kisii, Vihiga and wajir.
Raila’s figures were, however, relatively lower compared to 2017 when he was going against the joint ticket of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto.
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In the hotly contested elections, Raila had managed to lock Siaya county with 375,712 votes compared to 2,494 garnered by the Uhuru-Ruto duo. In Kisumu Raila had raked in 369,963 compared to Uhuru-Ruto’s 7,411. In Homa Bay, 400,351 votes compared to his competitors 1,960 and in Embu he got 17,549 compared to the duo’s 231,350.
In the 2017 elections, Murang’a gave Raila a paltry 9,122 compared to Uhuru-Ruto’s 498,248. Then there was Meru County where Raila pocketed 55,602 in comparison to the duo’s 482,580. On the flip side, a look into the 2022 election figures reveals that Ruto has largely maintained the support bases they had in 2017 and managed to hive off a substantial number of votes in regions that have predominantly voted for his competitor.
This is largely attributed to his forays into the Western region where he tag-teamed with the Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) duo and the formation of the Kenya Kwanza Alliance that reinvigorated his support base across the country.
In Elgeyo Marakwet, Ruto grasped 160,092 votes, 318,861 in Kericho and another 285,428 in Bomet. Busia county gave the DP 48,827 votes while Mandera delivered 21,086. In Makueni, Ruto amassed 59,331.
Raila registered 4,902 in Elgeyo Marakwet, 15,057 in Kericho and 13,383 in Bomet.
The results mirrored those in 2017 where the Uhuru-Ruto team dominated the above counties considered to be their strongholds and where some were swing votes.
In Busia, the former prime minister got 226,317 and another 89,222 in Mandera while he managed 229,187 in Makueni.
Data relayed by IEBC shows Uhuru-Ruto managed to lock 138,634 votes in Elgeyo Marakwet in 2017 compared to Raila’s 7,102. In Kericho, they got 272,974 compared to Raila’s 19,448 while in Bomet the Uhuru-Ruto pair had 229,599 against Raila’s 31,822.
Busia saw the duo clinch 34,239 against Raila’s 239,296 while in Mandera, Uhuru and Ruto jointly clocked 112,456 votes compared to Raila’s 17,984. In Kitui, the contest saw the pair only collect 64,652 against Raila’s strong 287,293.
In this year’s polls, Ruto has also reaped in Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Embu, Murang’a, Meru, Baringo, Nyandarua, Uasin Gishu, Kiambu, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Bungoma and West Pokot.