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It is undisputed that tomorrow’s poll is going to be one of the toughest in Kenya’s political history. Like previous elections, it is going to be a two-horse race with several donkeys stabilising the contest. The two horses will be Jubilee and National Super Alliance (NASA) while the donkeys will be several minority parties.
If history is anything to go by, Jubilee stands a good chance of winning. Let us analyse the polls history since 1992 to-date. In 1992, there were two main contenders; Daniel arap Moi and Kenneth Matiba. Moi triumphed over Matiba.
In the 1997 contest, Moi flexed his political muscles against Kibaki, again Moi trounced the latter. In 2002, Kibaki squared it out with Moi’s preferred candidate, Uhuru Kenyatta, and trounced him. In 2007, Kibaki faced off with Raila Odinga, and won, albeit controversially. In 2013, Uhuru vied against Raila and won.
History repeats itself. It is likely that the incumbent will retain the seat for the following reasons: One, from history, incumbents seldom lose their second bids for the top seat. Secondly, for different reasons, Raila has fallen out with all the former presidents: Moi, Kibaki and now Uhuru. Thirdly, his coalition seems to be more discordant than his competitors’.
While constituent parties that form NASA: Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Ford-K, WIPER, Amani National Congress (ANC) and Chama Cha Mashinani are operating on a corporate membership arrangement, Jubilee affiliated parties dissolved and are politically united.
The individuality of parties within NASA coalition allows them to field different candidates leading to a few bruised egos that might silently revolt in tomorrow’s polls.
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