Mudavadi's 'aloofness' might cost him dearly in 2032

Unfolding events in the Luhyaland put paid to the facade of unity among the Mulembe nation’s top leadership. When William Ruto, then deputy president and contender in the 2022 presidential race, convinced Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetangula (FORD-K) to join him in the Kenya Kwanza coalition, it appeared as if the Mulembe nation had resolved to pool resources and make a political statement.

Historically, the Bukusu of Bungoma County and the Maragoli of Vihiga County have harboured cultural mistrust that often spills into politics. While the Maragoli have a proclivity for being pro-government, the Bukusu have mainly identified with the opposition, until last year when things changed.

However, it is not lost on observers that Mudavadi and Wetangula are not as thick as thieves in their quest for oneness and bid to build a political juggernaut for 2032. They are hardly seen together.

Perhaps alarmed by this, a caucus of 20 Luhya MPs met in Butula last week and laid bare the growing discontent with the deportment of Mudavadi, the Prime Cabinet Secretary, who the leaders accused of having become a lone ranger.

Sirisia MP John Walukhe threw the first salvo at Mudavadi and drew a comparison with a weak bull whose owner has the option of selling or slaughtering. At the same rally, Vihiga Woman Representative and ANC deputy party leader, Beatrice Adagala, openly called herself a “daughter of Wetangula’’. That signals shifting alliances and growing discontent. If elected leaders can complain about Mudavadi being aloof and unreachable, what chances do the lowly placed voters have of interacting with him?

Cleophas Malala

It beats imagination how Mudavadi hopes to build a machinery that will propel his presidential ambition to the pinnacle without friends and the hoi polloi acting as ladders. If he didn’t know, he has a fight on his hands that he most likely will lose, especially when you throw Cleophas Malala into the mix.

President William Ruto, no doubt a wily fox, did not pick Malala from imminent political oblivion and made him Secretary General of the UDA out of love of the Luhya, or Malala himself. There must be a purpose that Malala, an accomplished mobiliser in his own right, will serve within the Luhya nation at the behest of his benefactor.

While Mudavadi has conveniently gone missing in action in western Kenya politics, Wetangula has been building a presence, especially in ODM strongholds where he has held several harambees. It is through such deliberate efforts that a dedicated following and solid base of backers is made and clearly, Wetangula is not wasting time. He is putting himself in a vantage position for 2032 when he might contest the presidency.

It raises the question; how committed is Mudavadi to becoming president after Ruto? If Ruto’s style, forward planning and the resultant political blitzkrieg that stunned the previous state machinery hasn’t rubbed off on Mudavadi, his dream of becoming president will remain just that; a dream.

Mr Chagema is a sub-editor, The Standard