Nasa: will it be a "house of cards"?

Elections 2017 are only four months away. A quartet of four major parties namely; Orange Democratic Party, Amani National Congress, Ford Kenya, and Wiper came together to come up with a united front to take on the ruling party-Jubilee.

After months of behind the scenes negotiations, they are yet to settle on a single presidential candidate, although negotiators from the four key parties have been burning the midnight oil.

The other two principals, Wiper's Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya's Moses Wetangula have set their sights on the ultimate presidential ticket.

ODM's Raila Odinga remains the favorite to win the presidential ticket while ANC's Musalia Mudavadi has somewhat remained a bit cagey about the whole thing and has not come out strongly to get a piece of the presidential pie.

Raila has been sending subtle feelers through his lieutenants that he remains the best bet of sending home the Jubilee administration.

Political haggling and tortured negotiations have not yielded much. A deep cloud of suspicion remains between the four key opposition figures.

The silent sniping that was going on among the four has now come into the open and threatens the much-publicised facade of unity and exchange of pleasantries witnessed in the past.

Even the hitherto considered timid Kalonzo Musyoka who has been calm and collected is now raging like an angry bull.

Just the other day, Wiper's key point man in the negotiations, Francis Nyenze was categorical that Wiper would not play second fiddle to anyone and either Kalonzo must fly the presidential flag within Nasa or Wiper would go it alone.

Of late, Kalonzo has severally accused his co-principals and especially ODM of belittling him and going back on an alleged MOU or memorandum of understanding that was signed way back in 2013 that was tacitly to have him fly the presidential ticket in 2017.

It appears the alleged MOU was signed in the heat of the moment in 2013 and it seems the drafters of that MOU have no appetite for it now.

As I write, the rumblings of disquiet within Wiper's ranks have grown into a crescendo despite it would seem attempts by deputy leader, Farah Maalim and Secretary General, Hassan Omar to douse the internal turmoil regarding Wiper's place within the grand coalition.

Nyenze has now given the other side a one week ultimatum to name Kalonzo Nasa's presidential candidate or else Wiper makes for the exit door.

With the elections fast approaching, can Nasa hold it together a bit longer or would it collapse like a "house of cards"?

Behind the public pronouncements regarding the issue of a single presidential candidate lies the issue of entitlement.

Similar to George Orwell's animal farm, where all animals were presumed as equal but where some animals thought they were more equal than others, an analogy can be drawn into what is currently afflicting Nasa.

Other than ODM's Raila Odinga, the other principals i.e Mrs. Musyoka, Mudavadi, and Wetangula have never felt equal to the big brother, ODM and Raila Odinga.

That's why they have been variously called "flower girls" in the past.

Look carefully: every time the issue of a single presidential candidate is brought up and when the three lads express unequivocal interest in bagging the presidential ticket, what do you see?

Without a doubt, a certain amount of navel gazing and smugness coming from the ODM side.

If the dream of a single presidential ticket within Nasa is to be kept alive, ODM and Raila Odinga need to tread carefully lest they unleash unwittingly the pent up frustrations and anger within Nasa.

We shall see what will become of the so-called "grand coalition".