Five years of Russia-Ukraine war: Will the 'Putin consensus' among Russians hold?

Ukrainian soldiers fire a MRLS BM-21 'Grad' towards Russian positions at an undisclosed location near Druzhkivka, Donetsk region, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. [AFP]

Perceived wisdom has it that the longer a war goes on, the less enthusiastic a public becomes for continuing the conflict. After all, it is ordinary citizens who tend to bear the economic and human costs.

And yet, as the war following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 enters its fifth year, the attitude of the Russian public remains difficult to gauge: Just over half of Russians, according to one recent poll, expect the war to end in 2026; yet a majority say that should negotiations fail, Moscow needs to “escalate” with greater use of force.