Firebrand to Forgotten: Aisha Jumwa's political struggles amid Joho's ascent

CS Aisha Jumwa, Former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi during a press briefing in Nairobi on October 19, 2023.[File, Standard] Former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa seems to have switched roles with the flamboyant Mining, Blue Economy, and Maritime Affairs CS Hassan Joho in defending President William Ruto. While Jumwa has launched her bid to unseat Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro from a distance, Joho has assumed her role in defending both President Ruto and his broad-based government, which has left the self-styled Mekatilili wa Menza in the cold. Jumwa adopted the name Mekatilili wa Menza in reference to the Giriama woman who led an uprising against British rule on the Coast. Since being ousted from the Cabinet, Jumwa has become increasingly isolated, relegated to her rural village in Malindi, with her voice effectively silenced. This has paved the way for Joho to emerge as the new right-hand man for President Ruto on the Coast. Although Ruto has Senate Speaker Amason Kingi and Youth Affairs and Sports CS Salim Mvurya, Joho has been the most vocal in the region, with his influence rivaling Jumwa's in her prime as Malindi Member of Parliament and minister. Jumwa's political career began in the 1990s as a Kenya African National Union (KANU) youth winger. She was later elected Mnarani councillor, served as Kilifi town council chairperson, and eventually rose to national prominence. Her political career took a sharp turn when she became Kilifi County's Women's Representative in 2013. She defended her then-Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party boss, Raila Odinga, with such fervour that she was briefly imprisoned in Nairobi for criticising the Jubilee government. After Raila's fallout with President Uhuru Kenyatta and their subsequent handshake, Jumwa shifted allegiance to Ruto. She faced threats of removal from her Malindi seat for aligning with Ruto, but boldly continued her political course, becoming one of his fiercest supporters. Jumwa was instrumental in Ruto's victory, campaigning for his candidate Feisal Bader in the Msambweni by-election and continuing to advocate for his success in the general elections. However, the political tide now seems to have shifted for this once-boisterous politician who was once a darling of Ruto. The formation of the broad-based government, which included Raila's allies, has led to Jumwa's political obscurity. She is known for her dramatic presence on the political stage, her robust responses to critics, and her fierce defense of her political mentors. But since Joho replaced her in the Cabinet, her voice has been muted, with Joho now acting as the primary defender of President Ruto. When Ruto laid the foundation stone for a Sh50 million market in Watamu, Kilifi County, in late July 2024, he promised Jumwa a government position, but this promise has not materialised. Ruto described Jumwa as a sister, vowing to "walk with her in government" and stating that he could not leave her in the cold. However, since then, politics in the Coast has evolved, and Jumwa has been largely silent while Joho has taken centre stage in pushing the President's agenda. Jumwa appears to have abandoned hope of being appointed to a government post and no longer follows Ruto on his visits to the Coast. However, she has maintained her "siko soko" clarion call, indicating that she remains loyal to President Ruto and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). When she attended the thanksgiving ceremony for Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga recently, Jumwa was asked to rejoin ODM, but she insisted that she had moved on and established herself elsewhere. She claimed she had gone to the event on an invitation to benchmark for Kilifi, with aspirations of becoming governor in 2027. In 2024, Joho's entry into Ruto's broad-based government and the unexpected exit of Jumwa from the Cabinet marked a significant shift in Coast politics. Jumwa's support for Ruto earned her a Cabinet position, first in the Public Service docket, then in Gender, before Ruto unexpectedly showed her the door, to the surprise of many. Since July, Joho has returned to the political limelight, actively advocating for Ruto's agenda, while Jumwa has faced one of the lowest points in her political career. Joho and Mvurya are now at the helm of Ruto's team in Coast, with Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro gaining proximity to the centre of power due to his good relationships with both Ruto and Raila. Whether Joho's entry into the Cabinet will give Ruto an advantage in Coast politics remains to be seen, but it is clear that the region's political landscape has shifted dramatically. Joho and Omar became newfound allies when Joho joined Ruto's Cabinet. In the last elections, Omar was Ruto's point man in Mombasa County, while Joho was fighting for Raila. Political analyst Prof Halim Shauri observed that the alliance between Ruto and Raila marks a strategic roadmap for the 2027 polls, with Joho set to play a key role in Coast politics. Prof Shauri pointed out that it is Ruto's strategy to secure votes from the Coast and other parts of the country, given the uncertainty of winning the Mount Kenya region bloc following the impeachment of Gachagua. He noted that with new allies, such as Joho, Ruto has a political lifeline, especially in light of the Gen Z protests that had threatened his administration. In this matrix, Joho stands out as a crucial figure in Coast politics. Prof Shauri emphasised that Ruto is focusing on securing a second term in 2027, even as the political climate in Central Kenya and other regions shift. According to Prof Shauri, any president would want to serve full terms and enjoy the trappings of power, and this has prompted Ruto to ally with Raila and his key allies to consolidate support across the country. "Ruto now has Raila and Mudavadi in his fold. There is a constitutional requirement that a presidential candidate must win in at least 25 counties out of the 47. With Joho and Mvurya, Ruto expects to win many votes in the six coastal counties and areas dominated by Muslims across the country," he said. Political analyst Prof Hassan Mwakimako noted that Joho and Mvurya will strengthen Ruto's political agenda in the lead-up to the 2027 polls, particularly if they succeed in their respective dockets and generate jobs and wealth for the region. Prof Mwakimako further noted that President Ruto's decision to appoint Joho and Mvurya, along with Senate Speaker Kingi, as key players in the Coast region was a strategy to bolster his team in the area. "President Ruto decided to increase his vote margin in Coast in addition to other considerations. He and Raila want to strengthen their team with a focus on winning the next elections," he observed. Mombasa lawyer Abubakar Yusuf remarked that Joho's appointment was part of Ruto's plan to secure a second term. However, he stressed that Ruto must deliver on pre-election pledges, such as land settlement for squatters and creating jobs for the youth, to maintain the support of the region. "If the broad-based government creates many jobs at the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, it will give a significant boost to Ruto's second term bid," he said. "This alliance between Ruto and Raila is focused on winning the 2027 polls. It makes it easier for Ruto to secure more votes from the Coast. The question remains: will they succeed?" he posed.

Firebrand to Forgotten: Aisha Jumwa's political struggles amid Joho's ascent

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