Why Raila no longer sits pretty in the Handshake

The entry of Baringo Senator Gideon Moi and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi into the BBI train might be causing jitters among allies of ODM chief Raila Odinga.

The unease, as alluded to by Siaya Senator James Orengo and Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo in their remarks about State interference, points to a Handshake partner worried of forces trying to outsmart him.

Initially, not in the Handshake agreement between President Kenyatta and Raila, Gideon and Mudavadi are now on the train.

To Raila’s allies, Gideon, whose party Kanu has a pact with Jubilee Party, and Mudavadi, who is a member of the National Super Alliance (Nasa) outfit, are not direct beneficiaries of the Handshake but are roped in on the basis of their alliances.

Gideon, who is the Kanu chair has been making inroads in different parts of the country to rally support.

In the last two weeks, he has campaigned in West Pokot, Garissa, Kiambu, Taita Taveta and Baringo counties and the two Handshake principals are set to come up with their roadmap for the same.

But even with the heightened political activities, Kanu is discouraging any links between BBI and the 2022 succession plans.

Yesterday, Kanu Secretary General Nick Salat said what is important is passing the BBI Bill through the referendum and not next year’s elections.

“The BBI document is beneficial to the country. As Kanu, it should not be a matter of who is president in 2022.

“What should be of essence is the country’s stability as espoused in the BBI. The sideshows should end so that we get back on track,” Salat said.

But ODM and ANC have been engaged in a war of words over the party and the candidate Uhuru favours.

Owes him

Raila said Mt Kenya owes him but President Kenyatta has kept the country guessing as Ruto and his allies also fault him for not endorsing the DP, despite his pledge during their previous campaigns.

From left, Ford Kenya party leader Moses Wetangula, ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi, Matungu ANC Candidate Oscar Nabulindo, Wiper party leader Kalonzo Msyoka and KANU Chairman Gideon Moi, at Bulimbo area in Matungu constituency for a political rally where they were campaigning for ANC candidate Peter Nabulindo on February 17, 2021. [Kipsang Joseph,Standard]

Mudavadi’s party, for instance, is spoiling for a fight with its coalition partner over a supposed endorsement by President Kenyatta.

“ODM should openly declare that it covets the endorsement that Mudavadi presumably beat them to.

“Any statements to the contrary are pure deceit,” ANC chair Kelvin Lunani said in a statement Monday.

ANC’s strategic positioning now holds the basis for ODM’s unease over an expected windfall in the form of referendum facilitation funds.

Under the banner, ‘Sacred Alliance’, Gideon, Mudavadi, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya leader Moses Watang’ula conducted joint campaigns for ANC and Ford Kenya candidates in Matungu and Kabuchai by-elections and won.

Raila’s and ODM’s commitment to the BBI has been almost absolute. He has been a busy man.

The former prime minister has been on the road campaigning for the document and in town hall meetings with the  youth, clergy, women and business people trying to get them to endorse the Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill 2020.

There are still some terms of the Handshake that remain a mystery, especially since Raila, a man who has been in Kenya’s political scene for close to three decades, is yet to declare his 2022 presidential bid.

University of Nairobi political analyst Elias Mokua observed that the growing discord within the Handshake team could be as a result of different goals.

“ODM and Jubilee came into this with different goals. When the goals are incompatible, whether they are ideological or practical, it raises the risk of a fallout,” Dr Mokua said.

Distrust

He said the two parties were not drawn to each other because of their love, but rather out of necessity and because of that, they were still distrustful of each other.

“As a president who is overseeing his succession, Uhuru will try to look for the best bet, someone who will be a custodian of his interests.

“On that metric, Gideon and Mudavadi appear like safe hands,” said Mokua.

He said issues within the parties supporting the Handshake ran deeper than what the parties were projecting.

Winnie Mitula, a professor of political science, said the stakes raised through the BBI are too high for any party to take for granted, adding that ODM would want to reap full benefits from the same.

“BBI is central to 2022 politics and ODM would lose a lot of capital if they let others run away with it,” she said.

Another political analyst, Martin Oloo, puts down the turbulence in the relationship to the typical nature of Kenyans.

“Uhuru and Raila are the authors of the BBI and the people who set the process in motion. They are the ones who will determine who gets what capital out of it,” said Oloo.