Politics: Top 10 numbers that defined economy during 2017 elections

NAIROBI, KENYA: Politics, according to American writer and comedian Groucho Marx, is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

The Kenyan economy has been through a season described by President Uhuru Kenyatta as difficult few weeks in which “our democracy has been tested to the limits and things have occurred in Kenya that have never occurred anywhere else on this continent”. Within this period, here are the key numbers that defined Kenyan economy.

Sh230 billion lost on NSE

This is the amount of money investors at the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE) stand to lose if they sell their stocks now. The bourse was defiant to the political season climbing to a high of Sh2.54 trillion in August 25 but has since lost patience of the political noise to dip to Sh2.31 trillion by close of market on October 24 as Kenyans took a break ahead of the polls boycotted by leading opposition.

NSE lost Sh92 billion in market capitalization on the day after Supreme Court nullified presidential election. It went ahead to lose another Sh38 billion on the trading session that followed.

Economic growth cut to 5 per cent

This is the best rate at which International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Kenyan economy to grow at. This is half the double digit envisioned by Kenya’s economic planners if the country is to meet vision 2030.

The five per cent projection by IMF in October is lower than their projected growth of 5.3 per cent in April to reflect election fever. This is a back to back cut after the same body had projected a six per cent growth in January.

Annual GDP growth rate has been averaging 5.5 per cent in the past nine years. Last year, the economy grew by 5.8 per cent compared to 5.6 per cent in 2015.

47 per cent of manufacturers to cut jobs

This is the number of manufacturers who will be cutting jobs in the next six months to reflect deteriorating business environment. in the recent findings from a survey by Kenya Association of Manufacturers (KAM), six out of 10 manufacturers sees zero or negative growth in revenue and cannot therefore sustain high labour cost.

Sh700 billion lost by private businesses

This is the amount of money that the Kenya Private Sector Alliance (Kepsa) estimates to have been lost by private businesses during Private businesses lost in the past four months.

The period has been punctuated by deepening business uncertainties occasioned by sharp exchanges between government and the opposition.

Most of the losses, Kepsa said, came from frequent disruption of transport and industrial operations during the campaigns ahead of General Elections and protests that followed the nullification of the presidential election.

Shilling tumbles to a low of 103.75/85 per dollar

This is the rate at which the shilling was exchanging against the dollar on October 23 being the weakest rate in two months.

The shilling came under heavy pressure as companies and individuals stockpiled dollars ahead of repeat presidential polls that were boycotted by leading opposition coalition. Central Bank of Kenya was forced to intervene, pumping in dollars to curb the volatility.

37 deaths, 126 injuries in a week

These are the number of Kenyans killed or injured during the post-election chaos witnessed between August 9 and 15, according to a Kenya National Commission on Human Rights.

Since the release of its ‘Mirage at Dusk’ report, more deaths and injuries have been reported in various parts of the country especially those with a leaning to the opposition leader Raila Odinga.

Sh60 billion spent on elections

This is the amount of money that Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) spent on conducting General Election and repeat presidential polls. An additional 4 billion shillings was also spent on enhancing security in hotspot counties and border areas.

The Sh50 billion spent on August 8 election is 38.9 per cent higher than the 2013 elections which cost Sh26 million or an average of Sh1,800 per registered voter.

Sh6 on salaries for every Sh1 on development

In three months to end of September, the exchequer has released Sh227.4 billion to be spent on recurrent expenditure (mainly salaries) while only Sh39.4 billion has been released on development.

With election fever refusing to die down due repeat presidential poll and high number of law suits challenging the outcome of August 8 election, development has been given a back seat.

On average, for every Sh1 spent on development, Sh6 was being released to meet recurrent needs.

PMI index of 40.9, lowest in four years

Kenya’s private sector activity in September shrank at the fastest rate in nearly four years as political uncertainty compelled firms to cut on stock levels. The fall in Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from 42 in August to 40.9 in October was linked to limited money circulation and a lower customer turnout

The index, which tracks new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment was from 400 private sectors that were surveyed by Stanbic Bank Kenya.

Non-performing loans hit 10.7 per cent

For the first time since 2007, the percentage of non-performing loans (NPLS) hit double digits. Data from Central Bank of Kenya put unpaid loans as a percentage of gross loans given to customers at 10.7 per cent from 9.9 per cent in the previous month.

The number of vehicle auctions rose. Early October, a record 135 vehicles were advertised in the dailies as headed for auctioneer’s hammer as the owners defaulted on loan.

What did top news-makers say on economy?

· Uhuru Kenyatta, President

Go about with your business. Plan for the future. This country will be here long after us [politicians], the noisemakers are gone. (When meeting business community in build up to August 8 polls)

· William Ruto, Deputy President

We are in a difficult season. Things have slowed down. For many Kenyans, work and opportunities are shrinking by the day and we are all feeling it whether you come from the east, west, north or south of our country. (In the Jubilee campaign promo for repeat presidential election)

· Raila Odinga , National Super Alliance (Nasa) leader

Our resistance to unlawfully constituted authority will also include the powerful economic weapon of boycotting goods and services produced by those who have supported Uhuru’s lawless grab of the Presidency. (When addressing supporters on repeat poll)

· Habil Olaka, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA) CEO

Electioneering period is becoming like a career and this is hurting the banking sector as well as other sectors in the economy. Kenya is not in a constitutional crisis but a political crisis which requires a political solution. At KBA, we call for meaningful dialogue to help resolve the impasse to help the economy. (When releasing research on impact of interest rate cap this month)

· Patrick Njoroge, Governor of Central Bank of Kenya

We are loud with our politics and that is not a surprise. The surprise element was nullification of presidential elections but I doubt if a second round of election will be significant on the direction of economy in the short term. (When he addressed journalists in mid-September after a session with investors in Nairobi)

· Wafula Chebukati, IEBC Chairman

Resignation would be the easiest thing, but I am determined to make this work. I will not go down as the chairman who plunged the country into a deeper crisis. (When he addressed the nation on the day one of IEBC Commissioners fled the country and quit).