NAIROBI: Electioneering period in Kenya has often been characterised by high level of politicking. As a consequence, greater focus during this period has mostly been on politics, and this may have had an effect on general economic progress of the country.

On February 26, 2016, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, the Secretary General of United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, was concerned with the effect of political campaigns on Kenya’s economy. He urged Kenyans to reduce political temperatures in the country and focus more on growing its economy. He further said, “It is sad that the country registers a decline in its economy due to incessant political bickering”. This brief provides an analysis with an aim of ascertaining whether or not the above claim is true.

This analysis will involve exploring the GDP growth rates from 1963 to 2014 to examine trends in economic performance and identify whether there exists any patterns that lead us to confirm that economic performance is affected by political campaigns.

The years of general elections will form a criterion upon which the comparison of GDP growth rates would be made (here we make an assumption that election campaigns are epitomised at this period hence would have the highest impact on economic performance of the country).

The growth rates on election years will be compared with those on non-election years. Aware of the fact that GDP growth rates may be affected by occasional factors such as drought, terrorism and economic sanctions, this analysis covers a long period of time (51 years); from 1963 to 2014. Analyzing GDP rates over a long period minimizes the effect of occasional factors.

The chart illustrates the trend in GDP growth rates (constant 2005) from 1963 to 2014. The trend reveals the general economic performance of Kenya since 1963 by looking at annual changes in the volume of the final goods and services produced in the country.

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The constant GDP growth rates remove the effect of inflation; this enables us to observe the real economic performance across the period. —The Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA Kenya)