The citizens will inevitably push for change if their aspirations are not met

Sometime in the mid-1960s when the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was accused of fermenting revolutions in Africa, Chairman Mao Tse Tung, then Chairman of the Communist Party and head of the Chinese government, vehemently denied the charge. On the contrary, he argued it was neither the responsibility nor the intention of the PRC to do any such thing in developing countries faced with the ravages of colonialism and domineering tendencies of imperialism.

But the PRC was acutely aware of two things after several countries won independence in Africa. First, African nations would definitely seek liberation from the remaining vestiges of the colonial yoke, expressed, in particular, through certain domestic and international social forces. Where blatant colonialism still existed as in the Portuguese colonies, the struggle for independence would no doubt be fused with the struggle for national liberation: hence the national liberation movements, which were ideologically more advanced than the independence movements in the rest of Africa.

Second, after the national liberation phase of history was over, people would no doubt seek revolutions to radically transform their lives and social well-being for the better instead of continuing under the wretched conditions which mere independence was unable to eliminate. This is why the PRC insisted that “a revolutionary situation existed in Africa” in an objective sense in the post-independence period. And that situation remains so to this very day notwithstanding the homilies from the ruling classes regarding the benefits of economic growth. Countries still want independence where such independence is still lacking; nations want liberation and people want revolution.

The conservative notion of revolution likens it to a civil war or an insurrection. While both may form ingredients of a revolution, they don’t necessarily—by themselves—transform society for the better. Revolutions require something else: revolutionary ideas and compassion inspired by visions for a better society championed by leaders with organisational skills to lead people to this better society.

When there was genocide in Rwanda in the mid-1990s and the Rwandese society had a total breakdown in its social fabric, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) had a vision for an alternative society (another Rwanda was possible) and was organised enough to take state power and begin building a prosperous and peaceful Rwanda.

What has happened since then and whether the regime is still heading in the direction it initiated 20 years ago is a discussion that will await another day. The truth, however, is that the revolutionary situation existed there 20 years ago and was positively used by the RPF to transform Rwandese society for the better. People wanted revolution and the revolutionary RPF did the job.

A revolutionary situation exists when the ruling class exhausts all the tricks of keeping the people exploited and oppressed without the people seeing through the lies and rebelling. When the tricks begin to fail and the people begin to ask awkward questions.

The ruling class in Kenya has never changed its tricks of oppressing and exploiting Kenyans blatantly since independence. Styles may change but the substance remains the same. The carrot of patronage, of ethnic favours and at times “democratising” corruption have more or less outlived their usefulness. The stick of ethnic fear mongering, of police clobbering demonstrators and of ostracising the “politically incorrect” is employed with a vengeance at times of political threats. But the situation is changing fast. More and more people are seeing the lie for what it is: a lie. Whether doled out as carrot or smashed on one’s head as a stick it still remains a lie.

The use of the carrot has been laced with the spice of tribalism all the time. Support us in our game because you belong to us, you are part of us, you are not “them”. If they take over we shall all be ruined; so keep them away at whatever cost. But look carefully: who really benefits from all this, all the time, through all the trials and tribulations? Of course some (shall we say a few?) among the otherwise oppressed have received land by giving support; some got jobs in like manner; a few formed prosperous companies that have benefited from state contracts. Those who have benefited from the carrot don’t obviously see the big lie. To them the lie is the truth about Kenyan politics: can someone say “Amen?”

The army of the oppressed and wretched is growing so fast in our Republic that it may not be kept “obedient” by the opium of tribalism for much longer: it is genuine fodder for a revolution. Yes: religion and religious zealotry is spreading like wild fire in urban centres seeking to give solace to the troubled souls: that opium may work for some time. But really religious people question the social injustices and will obviously seek to expose the lie all the time.

A revolutionary situation exists in Kenya: only the intellectually lazy will deny the fact. Men and women with social imagination talk about it all the time in salons, barber shops, bars, worship places, churches, mosques and even in government offices. Our only misfortune is that we may not have the revolutionaries to midwife the revolution for the better transformation of our society.

Vladimir Ilych Lenin was right: a society may be ripe for a revolution but if there are no revolutionaries to carry it out then that society may enter into a period of social decay and that process may continue for decades and decades. Haiti has had its process of decay for over 200 years: one hopes Kenya’s will be briefer.