Hunger situation to worsen, warns famine agency

By GATONYE GATHURA

The unfolding hunger situation will get worse, expand to cover huge areas and peaking around August.  But according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET), it could linger for much longer.

Today, the network says, no part of the country, even the grain basket of the Rift Valley, is completely food secure.

It describes only a few parts around the Lake region in Nyanza, Western, the highland areas of Rift Valley and Central qualify as being “minimally food secure”.  The rest of the country, according to FEWSNET standards, is classified as food stressed, with some areas heading towards a crisis.

According to the classification recognised by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO), if the situation is not arrested at the crisis level, it could quickly become an emergency and then a full- scale famine.

UNFOLDING CRISIS

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In its regional food security analysis for the first quarter of this year, FEWSNET tells of no possibility that the unfolding crisis could be averted from developing into a full-scale famine.

This is unless the multi-billion shilling irrigation scheme launched recently in Tana River comes on board quickly and strongly enough.

But most shocking for the country is the forecast of a poor March to June long rain season.

“The March to May 2014 long rains in the eastern Horn of Africa in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya are expected to be near or below normal in terms of total rainfall,” says the FEWSNET forecast.

The analysis, just like the Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department Dr Joseph Mukabana had said earlier, has shown that eastern and parts of northern Kenya will experience abnormally high temperatures between January and March this year.

The prospects of another poor long rains season following a poor show last year, could mean water and electricity rationing in parts of the country, high food prices and shortages and a difficult year for the new Jubilee government.

Dr Mukabana said power-generating dams such as the Seven Folks did not get enough water last year and power companies have confirmed possible stress in water volumes.