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About 3,340 Kenyans could die from Covid-19 within 12 months if containment measures fail, new projections by the World Health Organisation (WHO) reveal.
The new estimates for Africa published yesterday suggest some six million Kenyans could be infected by the virus in the first year, leading to 122,529 hospitalisations.
Of the cases, the estimates suggest five million of them will not show any signs of illness; half a million will have mild disease while a similar number will have moderate disease.
Some 3,445 will have severe disease while 1,805 will be critical and 3,340 will die. During the same period, 122,529 Kenyans will be admitted to hospitals.
The estimated 3,340 deaths are roughly equivalent to the annual traffic-related fatalities in the country and much less than the about 19,000 who died from pneumonia last year. In 2018, there were an estimated 33,000 cancer deaths.
The estimated hospitalisations (122,529), while significant, are still much lower than hospital visits due to top killer diseases in Kenya.
Last year, there were 87.8 million visits to public health facilities, about 21 million of them due to respiratory diseases, 13 million due to malaria of which 4.7 million cases were confirmed, and about four million due to skin problems.
The study, by the WHO Regional Office for Africa says on average, 150,000 people could die from Covid-19 in Africa in the first year of the disease if containment measures fail. In the best case scenario, 82,735 people could die and at worst 190,000 lives may be lost if containment does not work.
The study, published in the journal, BMJ Global Health, says Africa will experience a lower risk of the disease than other parts of the world.
“Only 22 per cent of the population would be infected in the first year with widespread community transmission, with fewer numbers of severe cases and deaths compared to what is seen in other countries,” says the study.
Earlier estimates
The new WHO projections are a major step down from earlier estimates, some that indicated up to 800,000 Kenyans could die of Covid-19. In a worst-case scenario, the Cabinet Secretary for Health Mutahi Kagwe had warned that 28,000-odd Kenyans could die if they failed to observe containment measures.
“We could lose as many as 28,000 Kenyans unless we start taking safety measures seriously,” warned Mr Kagwe in April.
In a scarier scenario, the Imperial College London in April had estimated Africa could see 3.3 million deaths.
The slow progression of Covid-19 in Africa and fewer deaths have confounded experts, some attributing it to a young population, high uptake of the BCG vaccine, warmer climate but most predicting the worst is yet to come.
Africa, with about 17 per cent of the world’s population, has less than two per cent of confirmed cases of Covid-19. By yesterday, there were 72,379 cases and 2,480 deaths on the continent.
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