Ruto fast losing favoured status with the US now calling for probe

President William Ruto sits on President Joe Biden's seat at the oval office in the White House, Washington, D.C on May 23, 2024. [PCS, Standard] He rose to power riding a crest of political momentum and quickly emerged as Washington's new favourite in East Africa. For months after assuming office, President William Ruto cut the figure of a dependable, reform-leaning ally, an articulate, energetic statesman who spoke the language of the common people, climate action, free markets, and continental leadership, and moved masses. Quickly, within diplomatic circles, he was whispered about as the "blue-eyed boy of the US," a nod to the perceived warmth and early trust former President Joe Biden's administration extended his way. "Behold the new face of African leadership..... he made quality speeches, and I must give credit to his handlers for a job well done. His delivery on issues that mattered, climate change, tax justice, Pan-Africanism, you name it, sold him as a development-focused leader. But not for too long when his true self showed," says Stella Agara, a Governance and Youth Development Specialist. The peak of that honeymoon would come in May 2024, less than two years into his presidency, when Ruto was granted a rare US State Visit, a high diplomatic honour typically reserved for America's closest allies. The red carpet was rolled out at the White House, making Ruto the first African leader in over 15 years to receive such treatment since Ghana's President John Kufuor in 2008. The then-American envoy to Kenya, Meg Whitman, painted a king-like treatment that awaited President Ruto: "In the Biden administration, there have only been five state visits; this is the sixth one, and it's the first African head of state to have a state visit since 2008, and only the second Kenyan. So it's a big deal, it's a high honour for the President and the Kenyan people", she stated, adding: "Of all the countries in Africa, Kenya was chosen to come for this state visit and will have lunch with members of Congress." Winnie Rugut, a lecturer at the Department of Diplomacy and International Studies, University of Nairobi, says President Ruto cut a sleek image. "He was a darling to the US in so many respects, his foreign policy posture, his eloquence, and boldness on issues like climate change quickly endeared him to Washington and resonated with many," says Dr Rugut. In fact, the fanfare was not without whispers; a quiet chatter in diplomatic backchannels said that Ruto may have been Washington's preferred candidate all along in Kenya's 2022 General Election. "The Biden administration embraced Ruto with both arms," notes Chris Otieno, a governance and security expert. "That's why the notion persists that he was America's pick, possibly even installed by them." In the early days of his presidency, Ruto's top challenger in the election, Raila Odinga, launched a blistering attack branding him a "puppet of the West," accusing him of advancing external interests as opposed to national welfare. In fact, Raila accused the US administration of rigging in favour of Ruto, warning the then-US Ambassador to Kenya, Meg Whitman, against interfering in Kenya's internal affairs. Ambassador Whitman had described Kenya's August 2022 election as the "freest, fairest, and most credible in Kenyan history." Raila fired back: "Tell the rogue ambassador that Kenya is not a colony of the United States. Keep your mouth shut; otherwise, we will call for your recall." But it is Kenya's elevation to the rarefied league of Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA), joining a select list of strategic partners with special access to US defence cooperation, that would be the cherry on the cake. As a Major Non-NATO Ally of the US, Kenya was earmarked to benefit from a wide range of strategic, military, and financial privileges, including access to US defence equipment.However, just over a year after being conferred MNNA status, the shine seems to be slowly fading away. A proposed US Senate amendment now seeks to reassess and potentially revoke Kenya's MNNA status, citing troubling shifts in Nairobi's foreign alignments, with alleged links to non-state armed groups like Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), and serious human rights violations during recent unrest back home. "As an MNNA, there are certain expectations placed on you: respect for sovereignty, good neighbourliness, and respect for human rights and dignity. But what we have witnessed is the complete opposite. At this point, the president's reputation is damaged irreparably, and now the world knows him for who he is," argues Agara. According to Otieno, the election of Donald Trump played into the script as well. "Of course, there are those missteps by President Ruto that have been largely cited, but also, the change of administration from Biden to Trump came with a shift in foreign policy. So what we are witnessing is partly anchored in what you'd call US interests," explains Otieno.According to Rugut, the MNNA status had nothing to do with Ruto's stature and rise to the presidency, but rather years of cooperation between the two nations. "Kenya's admission to the league of Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA) did not just happen. It was an accumulation of years of partnership and cooperation. Kenya has for ages been viewed as an anchor state and a pillar of stability in the region, and this reputation had taken years to build," observes Rugut.One of President Ruto's most controversial moves, largely seen as playing puppet to the US administration, came in October 2022 when the Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry formally requested assistance amid surging gang violence in his country. For nearly a year after the appeal, neither the US nor the UN was prepared to lead the delicate mission. But when everyone else was flip-flopping, Kenya formally stepped forward in July 2023, offering to deploy 1,000 police officers to head a Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), with backing from the US. "President Ruto's readiness to take up the delicate Haiti mission when no one else was stepping forward, to a large extent, warmed him up on the global stage," observes Rugut. "And to prop this up even more, there was the then ambassador Meg Whitman who excellently pushed for this realisation, cementing Kenya's journey into the troubled Caribbean nation," adds Rugut. Months after being feted in Washington with the rare honour of a State Visit, President William Ruto's pivot to Beijing raised eyebrows in global diplomatic circles. Ruto stated: "Kenya and China are not merely trade partners; we are new co-architects of a new world order", a statement that has hitherto drawn varied interpretations. Yesterday, President Ruto hinted that his Chinese forays could have led to the souring of relations with the S. "Some of our friends are complaining that we are doing too much trade with China." Adding: "It is what I must do for Kenya. It is in the best interest of Kenya," he said. The April 2025 visit to China, complete with military honours at Tiananmen Square and the signing of sweeping bilateral agreements, was widely interpreted as a geopolitical recalibration. However, according to Prof Peter Kagwanja, the Chief Executive of the Africa Policy Institute, there was merit in casting the net wider. "On this one, give it to President Ruto. In my opinion, pivoting towards China was a pragmatic decision that defied the hawkish embrace by the US. He needed to widen his reach to nations that could deepen our cooperation, trade, and foreign relations," observes Prof Kagwanja. "When he ascended to power, President Ruto had to make pragmatic foreign relations decisions that benefit the country. Look at all the major infrastructure projects; they are all being done by China. It's about country first," he argues. With Republican politician and Idaho Senator Jim Risch having tabled Amendment S.Amdt.3628, seeking to compel top US national security and foreign policy agencies to launch a full reassessment of Kenya's standing over its global alignments and the way it's been deploying American support, some see huge repercussions."We share lots of intel with the Americans, both locally and regionally. We cannot be everywhere, say, for instance, in Somalia, Sudan, DRC, Uganda, but the US and other international partners can have such links on the ground. And for ages, we have cooperated along these lines, sharing information for regional security. But it's now clear that the trust is broken," asserts George Musamali, a security analyst. According to Musamali, it is the local intelligence networks that will suffer the most and, in no time, will be exposed."Should the US sever links with us, what will be most exposed is our internal security. The US trains and equips almost all our specialised units from SOG, GSU, anti-terror units, bomb disposal unit, Recce Squad, among many others. They entirely have footprints in our internal security. If they pull aside, we are badly exposed," says Musamali. If the Risch amendments are adopted, it would direct the U. Secretary of State, in coordination with the Secretaries of Defence and Treasury, and the Director of National Intelligence, to launch a formal review within 90 days of the bill's enactment. The findings would then be submitted to Congress in a classified report no later than 180 days. Top among the range of concerns is Nairobi's links to non-state armed groups and violent extremist organisations, Sudan's notorious Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Al Shabaab, in addition to Kenya's perceived global alignments with China, Russia and Iran, also under scrutiny. If passed, the results of the Kenya review would be sent to six congressional committees: Foreign Relations, Armed Services, and Intelligence in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.And now, ow with speculation still rife about the direction things will take for Kenya, it increasingly appears that whether Kenya pivots East or repairs ties with the West, the days of being big brother's golden child are behind it.

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