How Raila has redefined the rules of political game to his advantage

The Kasarani rally will be memorable as the launching pad for Raila Odinga’s fifth attempt at acquiring official power. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard]

Former Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga had a big political day at his endorsement conference at Kasarani Stadium on Friday.

Yesterday, Uhuru Kenyatta held his last Jamhuri Day celebration as president at Uhuru Gardens. Both events showcased power, official and unofficial, linking together perceived interests of two political ‘brothers’.

The Kasarani rally will be memorable as the launching pad for Raila’s fifth attempt at acquiring official power. The ‘State’ fully backed Raila’s the event with ministers and other state officials in attendance. Uhuru’s Mount Kenya Foundation (MKF) friends looked like partners with Raila.

Officially led by influential money men from the Mount Kenya region, MKF has since 2008 tried to position itself as the determinant of the future of the Mountain. It is not the only one but it is the most prominent.

Referring to Uhuru as their ‘muthamaki’, members claim to have the president’s blessings as they go around promoting Raila’s candidacy. This was clear at a hotel function two days before Kasarani where MKF officials, ministers of state, top bureaucrats, and county governors associated with the Mountain competed to sing Raila’s praises, confess previous anti-Raila sins, and declare support for Raila.

In asserting that they previously lied about Raila, many were ambivalent because they dented their credibility which then needs positive panel beating. Believing in ‘kihooto’, Mountain people wonder whether the leaders are lying again and are supporting Raila because they do not like DP William Ruto or because they want to be seen to support Uhuru.

For some, hitching on the Raila political bandwagon looks like clutching on to viable political lifeboats. In a hotel, MKF issued a communiqué to endorse Raila which also sounded like a reprimand on Ruto. It had a list of resolutions that included resettling dispossessed IDPs in the Rift Valley but was silent on returning property in urban areas.

Kasarani, however, was to show that Raila has vigour to outperform his biggest political rival, Ruto. Being 22 years older than Ruto, Raila is determined to live up to his legacy of a calculating, tough above and below ground political operator; his resiliency is unsurpassed. He loses battles but repeatedly re-engineers himself politically. This resilience and gift of political re-engineering is a source of power that makes him a formidable force.

The persistence of that force scares opponents into accommodating his power desires. This is because of his ability to make the country ‘ungovernable’ and to render the government helpless despite the availability of State machinery to enforce existing laws. In the process, Raila has redefined the rules of political power play in Kenya. Losers can demand, get inclusion, and even take over functions of an elected government as long as they are formidable, persistent, and have capacity to make the country ‘ungovernable’.

Thus the gathering at Kasarani was the crowning of a two-pronged process. It was first to demonstrate acceptance of Raila’s redefinition of the political power game. The fact that state machinery and operators were at Kasarani to ensure he had a good day implies acceptance of the redefinition.

Second, was to build Raila into national acceptability as president. Although the absence of other political players and expected international guests dented the desired image projection and although critics called it a Luo-Kikuyu affair, it did not remove the excitement.