‘No’ team lacks credible unifying face

By KIPKOECH TANUI

When asked if the Proposed Constitution will pass at the referendum I answer ‘Yes!’ and I am guided by memories of how Kenya split into Banana and Orange camps in 2005. This is how our two rival political tectonic plates — that keep grinding at each other — formed.

After defeat in Kenya’s first referendum, President Kibaki sent packing five ministers led by Prime Minister Raila Odinga. His bitterness stemmed from the fact that he had made it a ‘Government’ rather than ‘mwananchi’ project and lost. The then Justice Minister Kiraitu Murungi ordered civil servants to vote ‘Yes’. When the referendum was lost, Kibaki executed a blood-curdling coup at the Electoral Commission of Kenya.

By 2007, he had unilaterally replaced ECK commissioners with his appointees, including a former family lawyer. He retained Samuel Kivuitu, his former student at Makerere University, and a few others. Thereafter, the stage was set for the day lights went out on Kenya. In the end, Kenyans got a President they were not sure won. Those who argue he did regurgitate hearsay and homemade mathematics.

On reflection, I believe 2007 elections would have been less chaotic had Banana won, because it was Executive-driven. With failure, the presidency flexed its muscle and abused its power to ensure it won the return match with Raila’s Orange brigade, the Banana having metamorphosed into a loose coalition of parties calling itself Party of National Unity.

Now, let us link this up with our main question. First, with ingenuity of international community, the Proposed Constitution does not sound a Government project. It is more of parliamentary and mwananchi programme over which politically itchy hands are tied by the Constitution of Kenya Review Act.

Two, through the division of labour between Committee of Experts, Parliament, then the rest of us in the referendum, the Executive’s wieldy hands were cut off. That is why the President, who won’t be running again and so has little at stake in 2012 elections, could say he was not so happy with it but he would not raise a finger against it. The man by nature does not like bruising his elbows and knees running someone else’s race.

Usual suspects

Three, even ‘No’ crusaders led by Agriculture Minister William Ruto say they just want to be remembered by history as having opposed it.

And not very oddly, those who are opposed to, or wavering over it, despite its rich recipe under the Bill of Rights and subjugation of the Presidency, are the usual suspects: Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr Kalonzo Musyoka and Ruto. Their common denominator is the old school boy connections. They also all want to lead us after Kibaki, and hopefully with laws they saw their political tutors use against their opponents. I suspect two of them are against the land clauses for different reasons.

Four, the Christian leaders will lose to opposition on the flimsy excuse of Kadhi’s courts, for which if the draft is thrown out will still be with us, and conditional abortion — in situations of life and death to the mother. This is because Kenya is not well endowed with Christian fundamentalists and is generally a liberal society. We may be 80 per cent Christians but we unfortunately belong to our tribes, political parties and social classes first. Ask yourself why the Church leaders saying ‘No’ are not calling demonstrations. In any case, abortion involves women and few have spoken or are worried about it because the claims by the bishops belong to the realm of dogma.

Reality in our poorly staffed and equipped hospitals, and among our pathetically poor society, is something else.

Five, unlike any other time in our history, and given the shame of post-election violence and unmitigated international interest in Kenya, external pressure is at its highest ever.

Six, Kibaki and Raila are on one side, which leaves out a small clique campaigning against them. The two are the objects of our disunity.

Seven, rightly or wrongly, and given our painful experiences from Independence, we all believe a new constitution will cure all our national diseases such as poverty, corruption and bad governance.

Eight, in the evolution of a nation there are certain game-changing developments that force change. We have had Jaramogi Oginga Odinga’s fall-out with Kenyatta; and Tom Mboya, JM Kariuki and Robert Ouko’s killings. Today we have the ugly spectre of 2007 elections and our silent agreement something must give way to ease pressure building up inside Kenya. We all feel suffocated by power and politics and want to breath a little easier.

Second liberation

Nine, despite MPs crafting 360 proposed amendments, none of which left the ground, the general feeling in the country is that the Proposed Constitution is better than the current one. It is no wonder Kibaki who usually not keen on looking like he is taking the cue from Raila, gave it 95 per cent score after PM declared it was 99.9 per cent good.

Ten, the ‘No’ campaign lacks a unifying cause, force and character. It does not have a credible face of reform. I sympathise with the bishops when I look at who they have for company and recall the gallant warriors of ‘Second Liberation’ in political arena and church.