Research firms discover goldmine in opinion polls

By Macharia Kamau

Opinion polls may be worth much to some companies. Even in cases where data has been collected and interpreted, few firms are willing to pay for it, yet the findings might be useful in implementing business plans.

The situation gets worse when it comes to politicians, who trash opinion polls whenever they don’t favour them.

But this perception, market researchers say, is changing as the polls become more credible to Kenyans, especially after the recently concluded constitution referendum.

In the run-up to the August 4 referendum, four research firms conducted opinion polls on which way the country would vote. Their prediction was confirmed by the vote outcome after the ‘Yes’ team won.

Melissa Baker, a director at TNS Research International, said as opinion polls gain currency in the country, the outcome of the referendum boosted the credibility of research firms.

"It is a fairly new phenomenon in Kenya but acceptance is picking up," she said.

"The last opinion poll to the referendum boosted the confidence that Kenyans have in political polls and hopefully this perception can be sustained to the next big debate on a national issue."

Research firms now plan to ride on the positive perception to generate revenue from opinion polls, with politicians and the Government expected to commission polls to get feedback from the public on the implementation of the new Constitution.

As politicians use poll findings to rate their findings, companies can also use the information to understand the buying behaviour of their consumers.

The Government can use such results to ensure social and economic programmes address the needs of the targeted people.

"Opinion polling is a profitable segment and can account for at least 20 per cent of the business in the research industry," Baker said.

Public perception

She said opinion polls are a common practice in developed economies, where governments and politicians crave to get the perception of the public on various issues.

"Opinion polls are frequent in many countries and are not limited to run-up to political processes like in Kenya."

There have been concerns about the number of people that the research firms interview before making their conclusions. Normally, the firms take a sample size of between 2, 000 and 4,000 people, to represent the entire Kenyan population of about 40 million people.

"Sample size is a fundamental problem in research but statistically speaking, it is possible that a small sample size can represent such a huge population but there will always be a margin of error," she said.

"The selection of people interviewed is scientific but the idea is to make it possible for every person in the population have an equal chance of getting into the opinion poll."