Dilemma in Orange as top dogs dig in

By Oscar Obonyo

Prime Minister Raila Odinga says he will not sack Agriculture Minister William Ruto. The Eldoret North MP has also dismissed talk of a no-confidence vote on the PM.

Does this mean the two Orange party leaders have resolved their differences?

Those in the know claim it is over between the two and what remains is how rival PNU will dig in for political capital.

Already, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, who are allied to PNU, have separately wooed the Eldoret North MP to their corner.

And in the same fashion as witnessed in the falling out between the PM and VP in the run-up to the 2007 General Election, MPs allied to Ruto have adopted a "dog in the manger" attitude, whose prime goal is "to play the spoiler" for Raila.

In 2007, Kalonzo embarked on a campaign strategy that frustrated the dreams of Raila’s team. He pushed to the end, quickly sealing a post-election deal with President Kibaki amid violence.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny does not rule out a repeat of similar ploy.

"We now consider the Prime Minister an opponent – a political enemy. We shall do everything possible to frustrate him politically."

Indeed, an MP from western Kenya claims some MPs from Rift Valley have confided to colleagues on how they plan to make the PM an unappealing presidential candidate.

"Tunataka kupaka Raila matope sawasawa mpaka ikifika 2012, watu wetu wakimuangalia, hawatatambua kwamba yeye ndiyo arap Mibei waliofahamu 2007 (We want to pour all sorts of dirt on Raila so that our people will not recognise him as the arap Mibei (one of the PM’s nicknames) they knew in 2007)."

Simple arithmetic

An official at the PM’s office describes the move as Ruto’s campaign arithmetic of inventing enemies to secure support of the Rift Valley.

"Ruto’s arithmetic is simple. He wants to isolate his people for himself by inventing enemies so he can stand out as their saviour," he claims.

But Kuttuny maintains ‘our people’ do not trust Raila anymore.

"Personally, I will not change tune to rejoin him. He lacks strategy and I do not want to sink with him."

Uasin Gishu politician and businessman Jackson Kibor explains: "Some legislators are selfishly determined to ensure Raila and Ruto do not see eye to eye. Their goal is for the Kalenjin to clear the PM from their memories."

Another North Rift MP says: "This thing has gone too far and we can’t allow them (Raila and Ruto) to reunite. This is because we have fought Agwambo (Raila) too hard and doubt he can give us an ODM nomination ticket to defend our seats."

Mr Kibor, also a member of the recently reconstituted Kalenjin Council of Elders, says he has personally asked Ruto to mend fences with the PM without success. His plea to Ruto to reach out to ODM chairman Henry Kosgey has equally flopped.

"I have given up on our son, Ruto. He has opted to speed up too early in the race and I fear he will soon burn out and drop out of the race," Kibor told Tuesday Politics.

Many more have given up, but not ODM Parliamentary Group Secretary Ababu Namwamba and Nominated MP Sheikh Muhammad Dor.

The two remain committed to resolving differences between the ODM pair "for the good of the party".

Political fortunes of the giant ODM party, which bagged majority seats in Parliament, are doubtlessly dwindling. However, the Raila-Ruto battle is one that none of the two combatants can win.

Political student

Ruto is Raila’s political student, who has been understudying him for the last four years since they teamed up in 2005 to push for the rejection of the Wako Draft Constitution.

Ruto seems to understand Raila well enough and curiously exhibits the same belligerence as Raila against retired President Moi before his NDP’s short-lived political marriage with Kanu.

Every action the PM takes is accordingly likely to be replicated by Ruto — probably with equal impact. This is demonstrated by last weekend’s rallies organised by anti-Raila forces in Rift Valley in a clear reaction to the PM’s Mombasa meeting.

The turn of events begs a host of questions. Is Raila shooting himself in the foot? Is he insensitive to the needs of the very people who voted for him in the 2007 presidential polls? Or is he eventually convinced he can do without their support?

Kuresoi MP Zakayo Cheruiyot blames the current friction on Raila: "The Mau question is the PM’s main undoing. Mistreatment of evictees is a result of his instructions and he has not done anything to make the process smooth."

Some MPs accuse Raila of being the face of Government brutality.

"The PM’s journey has never been one of short-cuts or for the faint at heart. So this is really a non-issue for him. It has also never been Raila’s character to fight for or against a tribe. He has fought on the platform of national issues," reacts the PM’s Spokesman Dennis Onyango.

The official explains the issues on which Raila and Ruto have differed are national, not Kalenjin, Kikuyu or Luo. He lists them as appointments to the Cabinet, release of post-election violence suspects, and the conservation of the Mau.

But there is still hope for a Raila-Ruto team ahead of 2012, courtesy of the Draft Constitution.

The draft proposes an arrangement that gives room, even for sworn enemies, to work together. Unlike the current situation where the President enjoys powers to hire and fire, one can enter into a post-poll arrangement to serve as Deputy President or Prime Minister without fear of being shoved out midway through the parliamentary term.