We are in 2021, but it looks like we’re back to 2007 all over again

Opposition parties rarely win elections, governments lose elections, the old saying goes. It is true also that African governments rarely lose elections, not especially to mediocre opponents - and there are many of them around. With nearly nine months to the August 2022 elections, electoral pundits are putting a wager on either government-opposition (Jubilee/UDA) or opposition–government (Jubilee-ODM-OKA) formations winning the polls. Whatever it is, government and opposition will both be winners and losers next year. As we saw in 2007, a tightly fought election carries numerous risks especially in a dysfunctional democracy such as ours. Compare that to 2002. I recently interviewed a renowned Kenyan jurist who laughed off the idea that a wave akin to that of 2002 is in the offing with the opposition-government formation riding it to victory.