Raila’s support of VAT hands him share of blame in Jubilee blunders

ODM leader Raila Odinga

Although he is second in command in the country, Deputy President William Ruto has not played a discernible role in managing the unfolding crisis resulting from the taxation measures contained in the Finance Bill 2018.

In the circumstances, the burden of navigating the bill through a surprisingly disruptive National Assembly has been carried by President Uhuru Kenyatta, without the support of his deputy.

As part of his steering of the bill, Uhuru convened a parliamentary party caucus with a view to getting Jubilee members to agree to his version of how the country’s tax issues should be resolved.

The management of the Finance Bill has had an unusual player in the leader of the NASA coalition, Raila Odinga. When public disquiet was first raised over the burdensome taxation measures proposed in the 2018 budget, it is Raila who came out to reassure the country, promising that Uhuru, who was then abroad, would reverse the arduous requirements in the bill once he returned.

Raila then followed up by corralling a party caucus of his own, during which he tried to get members of his party to support the President’s viewpoint on the proposed taxation measures.

An unintended effect of the budgetary crisis is that it has demonstrated the growing distance between the President and his deputy. If the budget crisis had taken place during the first term of the Jubilee Party, when relations were closer, Ruto would most probably have been more identifiable with whatever solutions were proposed.

As things now stand, it is as though Ruto no longer feels a duty to share in the burden of managing the country on a day to day basis.

The role Raila is playing in the budget crisis has been the source of some interest. A section of his support base is angry because they expected that he would oppose the imposition of a tax on fuel. Another section of the same group has, however, pointed out that Uhuru, not Raila, is President and that any disappointment should be directed at the former and not the latter. 

Raila could have stayed out of this crisis whose origin is management of the country’s debt during the last five years, a period during which he has been nowhere near power. On the contrary, his own party had previously warned against the unbridled public spending which is viewed as a major contributor to the unfolding crisis.

By wading into the crisis, Raila has actively courted responsibility for a matter that has nothing to do with him. At the same time, it is probably his decision to take responsibility that has pushed Ruto away, transforming the debt crisis from one over which Jubilee should be evaluated on its own, into a handshake issue.

The handshake between Uhuru and Raila settled the biggest question emerging from the 2017 elections. It brought an end to high levels of public anxiety that had been generated by the disputed results in the presidential elections, and culminating into leadership crisis. Having resolved the leadership crisis through the handshake, Uhuru had hoped that he would have a quiet second term, but the unfolding budgetary crisis now threatens that hope.

Further, whereas Uhuru would have hoped that Raila’s support for his government would only be needed in the realm of electoral justice and issues directly arising from the 2017 elections, it is now evident that the President needs the support of his former rival in other matters including management of the economy.

The unfolding crisis signifies that despite support from Raila, Uhuru may not have a quiet second term, as rising economic hardship may lead to a rise in public anger against his government. It has since become clear that the Uhuru/Raila handshake has also got to do with arrangements for the Kenyatta succession. By working together now, Uhuru and Raila expect to employ a common approach in relation to the Kenyatta succession, the only real benefit that Raila derives from the handshake.

However, the unfolding economic crisis weakens both Uhuru and Raila and also directly undermines their cooperation. Hungry citizens will increasingly question the purpose of the Uhuru/Raila cooperation if its only discernible benefits are personal to the two leaders. There must be threshold of legitimacy below which both Uhuru and Raila will be too weakened to guarantee each other anything.

In this sense, the economic crisis directly threatens the handshake and by wading into the issue, Raila assumes responsibility without any guaranteed benefit.

On his part, by appearing distant from the economic crisis, Ruto has already dumped Uhuru and the consequences of Jubilee’s chaotic management of the economy even though the Deputy President has been an integral part of the failures. Ruto could yet find the space to make himself over, as the saviour for the country from this economic crisis. The coming days are uncertain, even for Uhuru and Raila.

- The writer is Executive Director KHRC. [email protected]