CORD fails to notice changes in voters at its peril

Time is running out for CORD ahead of 2017. The reason is simple. The demands of the average Kenyan voter have changed. But the CORD leadership appears to have missed this fact by a mile.

It used to be that politicians could shout from podiums about ill-defined ideas – like justice and reforms – and then provide entertainment in form of jokes, singing and dancing, before sending voters home with T-shirts or tokens of money. Then politicians would rest easy that ethnicity would do its magic and secure the vote. But things have changed. The decade between 2003-2013 unleashed developmental achievements on a scale the country had never seen. Kenyans now know what is possible in terms of material development. And they are no longer going to take entertainment and token payments in exchange for their votes.

This is not to say only CORD politicians engage in these tactics. All Kenyan politicians have historically thought little of the voter. But Jubilee politicians have advantage of incumbency, and can point to tangible development outcomes at the national level come 2017. But what will CORD point to? How will CORD respond to voters when they ask, what have you done for me lately?

This is a matter that appears not to be on the radar of CORD strategists. As counties run by CORD spend millions on pageantry, hotel fees and tea, voters are keenly watching. And will remember this in 2017.

The framers of the 2010 Constitution were smart when they got rid of the winner-take-all system that we previously had. Now the Opposition gets to run counties with guaranteed budget allocations. Governors can run actual policy at the grassroots. And major Opposition parties can coordinate these efforts. It also helps that because of the geographic concentration of votes, major parties can potentially coordinate policies across counties in certain regions of the country. But this has not happened. Instead, Opposition politicians have treated the county budgets as personal ATMs. Billions of shillings are being spent without tangible benefits.

Again, the same is true for Jubilee counties. But these governors are lucky as the national government hides some of their failures. Come 2017 they can ride on the national government’s visible development record.

But what will CORD governors and politicians run on? Why has CORD failed to wake up and notice the tectonic shift that has taken place in Kenyan politics? Can CORD shape up before 2017?

In my view, the fundamental structural problem facing CORD is that it is still an activist Opposition, as opposed to a government-in-waiting.

Let me explain. When dealing with a dictatorship, it often becomes necessary to blur the line between civil society and the Opposition. Everyone joins in to pressure the government to reform. But the conduct of politics in a democracy with a legally elected government is different. Alternation of governments and politicians makes it necessary to separate civil society from the Opposition. Indeed in the latter set up, civil society not only checks the government but the Opposition as well. CORD, it appears, has not learned this lesson. Its politicians still operate in activist mode. Their modus operandi still relies on press conferences and ultimatums, instead of focusing on building a solid party machinery that can deliver to the base and seek new members (the elections were postponed again!).

The death knell of the political careers of CORD’s principals is being rung. If it is to have any chance in 2017, the alliance must sprint in the next two years and make sure a critical number of its counties have a respectable development record to speak of. That is what voters will be looking for. The structural changes in voter demands mean “activist” causes like “reforms” will not sway the electorate.

Voters are not daft. They know CORD governors, MCAs, and MPs are just as corrupt as their counterparts in Jubilee. Tangible developmental deliverables will be the litmus test.

It is with this in mind that CORD should digest the admonition against flip-flopping sounded by US President Barack Obama last Sunday. It is not enough for the Opposition to play the role of activists, constantly highlighting the need to pressure the government. Many of them have served in government for several years. What they ought to do is focus on building their agenda for Kenya, and showcasing the same in the counties that they run. This is not to say CORD should not speak out against ills like corruption or concentration of power in the presidency. The challenge is to figure out how to do so while at the same time delivering on their promises at the grassroots.