Germany elections: Any lessons for Kenya?

The leader of Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Friedrich Merz addresses a press conference after a CDU party leadership's meeting at the party's headquarters the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus in Berlin, on February 24, 2025, one day after the German federal elections. [AFP] United States of America sucks all the political and economic air from the rest of the world. That is why we did not pay enough attention to Germany's polls last week. The key news was on the British premier visiting the US, a possible rare earth metals deal between the US and Ukraine, and more tariffs from Donald Trump. Trump II has kept us busy. The drama at the White House during President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit capped the week. Germany went to the polls after the coalition that replaced the long-serving Chancellor Angela Merkel fell apart. The coalition led by Olaf Scholz did not live up to the voters' expectations. To be fair, Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine could have derailed any other leader's socio-political agenda. But voters are rarely forgiving or understanding. It's another question why coalitions are the most popular form of government in Germany, and Italy too. Why don't we have big parties like the Democrats or Republicans in the US? Proportional representation is one factor leading to more parties in parliament. The other factor could be that Germans are good at making deals. And maybe the more parties in the coalition, the more ideas are generated with democracy tested to the limit. Think of the Communist Party versus coalitions. The key issues in the polls were immigration, economy, and war in Ukraine, which led to higher energy prices and inflation. Remember the Syrian civil war sending waves of immigrants to Germany? The suspected terror attacks by immigrants made immigration a hot political issue. My recent visit to Hamburg left no doubt Germany is hosting lots of immigrants, about 13 million. I found several restaurants serving food popular with immigrants on some streets in Hamburg. Getting food from Afghanistan, India, Thailand, and other countries was easy. I did not find one serving Kenyan food like Musenye, Kimanga, or muthokoi. Immigrants are attracted by a good welfare system and a once-vibrant economy. After all, Germany is the leading economy in Europe. Noted how Kenya is attracting immigrants too from the rest of East Africa? What is attracting them? The rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, far right, is fueled by immigrants, seen in many countries as taking jobs and changing the host country's way of life. Why is immigration such a hot issue in Europe, yet in North America it's seen as an asset? Is it the quality of immigrants or just any immigrant? Traditionally, parties win or lose political power based on domestic affairs such as inflation, joblessness, or the unpopularity of their leaders. Let's not rule out the egos and ambitions of some leaders. This time in Germany, external issues mattered; they had an impact on domestic affairs. We have immigration and inflation. Both had external sources. Think of the auto industry in Germany and the shrinking car market in China where German companies had heavily invested. This year's polls had another external factor. Trump II. He is highly conservative and seems willing to export his conservative credentials to Germany and beyond. Is Kenya included? Do you see some uncanny semblance between Republicans in the US and our KK government? Why was Elon Musk so focused on AFD? Does the US see AFD as a likely partner despite facing a firewall in forming coalitions in Germany? AfD ended up as the second biggest party in the Bundestag. They doubled their share from about 10 per cent to 20 per cent. It's easy to see why AFD has a live wire to the US: it's policies mimic those of Republicans. That includes denying asylum or sending seekers home. Sounds familiar? What of returning to nuclear energy, leaving NATO, and abandoning the euro? We have not heard the last of AfD. Remember, similar parties are in power in Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. CDU/CSU will have to form a coalition with other parties to form a government. A lot of horse trading will take place through policies and positions such as ministers. The likely Chancellor will be Friedrich Merz, once shunned by former chancellor Angela Merkel. Hopefully, he will turn around things, rebuilding the German economy and confidence. Any lessons for us from the German polls? The elections were peaceful and held on a Sunday so as not to interfere with other economic activities. We prefer holidays! In the US, voters are given a few hours to vote, no holiday. Why didn't we pick that as we adopted their constitution and their baby names? Parties join coalitions in Germany but keep their identity and ideology. They have built that over time. CDU was started in 1945, while CSU was started in 1946. Parties' ideologies and policies make negotiations very tough but beneficial to voters, nothing falls through the cracks. What is the half-life of a political party in Kenya? We shift with the political wind and have no pride in our political parties. Most of us are party-less. I still keep my Kanu membership card, which I had to get before applying for an ID. The political campaigns in Germany were issue-centred, and parties knew they would win or lose depending on keeping the promises they make. We have become a coalition country like Germany, but our parties lack discipline and ideology and behave more like matatus; they just take you where you want, without bothering who owns the matatu or its mechanical state. When will our parties become like German machines, BMW, Mercedes, VW or even Maybach. Well-functioning parties are the building blocks of democracy and economics. Gerd Schwandner, a former Germany politician, summarises the state of German politics and the economy: "All depends on how the new government under the stewardship of Chancellor Merz (CDU) can handle these tough challenges and if the minority partner SPD can get rid of their 'wokeness' faction and return to politics in the style of former chancellor Helmut Schmidt." How much wokeness is in Kenyan politics?

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