Inside Ruto's Sh16 trillion last-ditch plan to save Vision 2030

President William Ruto shares a light moment with Maureen Jumba of Practical Action during the inaugural Kakamega International Investment Conference at MMUST. [PCS]

Last week, the country officially started the final lap of its long-term development blueprint, the Kenya Vision 2030.

The Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (Beta) for Inclusive Growth will be the fourth and final Medium-Term Plan (MTP IV) of the Kenya Vision 2030, which the country started implementing in 2008. 

According to the government, MTP IV has been modelled in line with Kenya Kwanza’s “bottom-up” or “hustler” agenda, with the programmes to be implemented over the period aimed at uplifting the ordinary Kenyan.

As with other MTPs, the Beta plan is a five-year plan meant to run between 2023 and 2027 and will succeed former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Big Four Agenda.

Over the MTP, the Kenya Kwanza administration said it would spend Sh16 trillion in its quest to have the economy gather momentum and grow by 7.2 per cent by 2027, create 1.2 million jobs annually and increase tax collections to Sh5 trillion by 2028.

The economic blueprint is critical for the country as it is the last five-year MTP, which according to the National Treasury will transition the country to the next long development plan.

And while the country achieved middle-income status after it rebased its economy in 2014, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita of $1,430.35, it has missed other key targets set in 2008.

Over the next four years, President Ruto’s administration will have a tough job of delivering the unfulfilled promises under the Vision 2030 blueprint started under the late President Mwai Kibaki’s government in 2008. 

President Ruto’s Beta medium-term plan is the last of the MTPs. This could mean that when the country takes stock of the achievements and failures in 2030 or thereabout, it will largely be the Kenya Kwanza administration that will be patted on the back for delivering the vision or take the flak for failure.

“Upon assuming office, our administration pledged to spearhead a radical economic turnaround, fostering inclusive growth and enhancing the livelihoods and welfare of all citizens, particularly those at the bottom of the economic pyramid. These commitments are intricately detailed within the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda,” said Dr Ruto when launching the Beta MTP.

The MTP is anchored on five pillars - agriculture, health care, Housing and Settlement, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Economy and the Digital Superhighway and Creative Economy.

“Beta has targeted sectors with the most impact to drive economic recovery to be achieved through six objectives: bringing down the cost of living; eradicating hunger; creating jobs; expanding the tax base; improving foreign exchange balances; and inclusive growth,” said Principal Secretary, Economic Planning at National Treasury James Muhati.

“It will ensure rational resource allocation by eliminating wastage of resources occasioned by duplication, fragmentation and ineffective coordination in implementation of programmes and projects.

“The MTP IV macroeconomic framework will seek to strengthen economic resilience and drive inclusive, broad-based and sustainable economic growth. Over the medium term, the government will focus on Bringing down the cost of living through prudent monetary policy, eradicating hunger, creating on average 1,200,000 new jobs annually, expanding the tax revenue base to increase total revenue collection, improving the foreign exchange balance through promotion of exports and achieving inclusive growth.”