Here is evidence that Kenya is following in Haiti's footsteps

A video grab from CCTV footage shows armed suspects robbing customers inside a restaurant along General Mathenge Road in Westlands, Nairobi, on July 4, 2026. [Courtesy]

Professors Rosa Freedman and Nicolas Lemay-Hébert's description of Haiti before the gangs took over, in Understanding the Gang Violence and Instability in Haiti, could easily be mistaken for a description of Kenya today.

"A resource-rich country, Haiti once produced half of the world's coffee and about forty per cent of its sugar cane. It has beautiful beaches, stunning views, vibrant art and music, and a rich heritage and culture."

Today, Haiti is a failed state, reduced to one of the poorest countries in the world and is synonymous with violence, kidnapping, and lawlessness. That transformation happened within a relatively short period, roughly equivalent to the years since Kenya attained independence.

As the name Haiti increasingly features in conversations about goon culture and state failure, we must confront one uncomfortable question: Does Kenya today possess the same ingredients that turned Haiti into the failed state it is today?

The unfortunate answer is yes.

For starters, we have the manpower. In 2008, shortly after marauding gangs killed more than a thousand people during the post-election violence, Johann Kriegler's commission warned that the bloodshed would pale in comparison to what lay ahead if Kenya failed to address youth unemployment.

Nearly two decades later, we are still feeding our youth on leftovers from a national cake that is divided long before it leaves the oven. Token programmes, whether branded Kazi Mtaani, the Nyota Fund, or something else, have done little to defuse the bomb steadily ticking beneath the noise of politics and plundering.

Next, we have enough illegal guns lying around to turn Nairobi into a Port-au-Prince overnight. Every day, we are waking up to reports of brazen robberies committed by barely grown boys armed with firearms. Like the Haitian gangs, they are increasingly challenging police officers to gunfights in broad daylight. If this is not evidence that we are drifting towards Haiti, then perhaps we are willfully blind.

Besides, Nairobi is surrounded by open marketplaces for illegal weapons in Somalia, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Thanks to improved road networks, some of our highways have made the delivery of illegal weapons even easier.

The next ingredient is dirty money, and we have no shortage of it. Every day, we hear stories of people hiding millions of shillings in bedrooms and ceilings—enough to finance private militias for years. Entire estates are springing up in Nairobi, almost overnight, funded by wealth whose origins nobody seems to know or nobody cares to question.

Some of our political leaders are already warlords in all but name. They openly boast of having their own "boys," much like François Duvalier's notorious Tonton Macoute, the private militia that eventually became more powerful than Haiti's police and military.

It is worth remembering that Jimmy "Barbecue," one of Haiti's most notorious gang leaders, once served in an elite police unit. That points to yet another disturbing similarity with Kenya today-the increasingly blurred line between criminal gangs and law enforcement.

Then there is corruption, another major force behind Haiti's descent into chaos and one area where Nairobi could easily outshine Port-au-Prince. Corruption has become so deeply embedded in our national life that one could cynically argue the average Kenyan child is conceived through corruption.

Drugs are another common denominator. In a country where high school students can easily purchase narcotics through the school fence before proceeding to burn down their school, the drug problem is no longer whispered about in Kenya; it is in plain sight.

Finally, there is the question of precedent. Do we have evidence from our own recent history showing how quickly Kenya can descend from a country full of promise into one paralysed by fear and disorder?

Unfortunately, we do.

We have already seen how the mere threat of street protests can bring an entire country to a standstill. We have witnessed a handful of youths armed with slingshots shutting major transport corridors, including the Thika Highway.

Kenya may appear indestructible after decades of being an island of relative stability in a troubled region. But Haiti once seemed stable too. So did the DRC. And Somalia as well.