Nearly three decades later, is Kenya ready for another El Nino?

360 Degrees Estate in Katani submerged after heavy rains caused flash floods. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard]

Nearly three decades after El Niño rains exposed Kenya’s lack of a coordinated disaster-response system, the country is once again preparing for a season of potentially heavy rainfall. This time, however, the question is no longer simply whether the country has the institutions to respond, but whether those systems have kept pace with the risks created by population growth, rapid urbanisation, expanding built-up areas and a changing climate.

Kenya’s meteorological authorities have forecast enhanced rainfall during the October-December 2026 short-rains season, with above-average rainfall expected across much of the country, including Nairobi. The season is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall interspersed with dry spells, while regional climate outlooks point to wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the Greater Horn of Africa as El Niño strengthens.