Mounting rebellion tests the unity pillars of Ruto-Raila's broad-based union

President William Ruto and ODM Leader Raila Odinga during the signing of Peace and Partnership Agreement at KICC, Nairobi on March 7, 2025. [Boniface Okendo, Standard] Alarmed that the wars within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) were taking up a life of their own, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga Friday moved to quell the tensions. In a statement issued by his spokesperson, Dennis Onyango, Raila said he was "following" the debate about his party's relationship with President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the different interpretations of a cooperation agreement the two parties recently signed "with keen interest." "It is the position of the Party Leader that at the appropriate time, relevant organs of the party will harmonise the diverse views and come up with a harmonised position on the way forward," Onyango wrote. "Mr Odinga appeals to ODM members and leaders to exercise decorum, civility, restraint and respect for each other as they debate the current state of affairs and the future of the party. He assures members that the party will remain united and focused on matters of interest to the nation. The statement assumed the confusing position Raila has adopted since he partnered with the President last July. The former premier talks and acts like a government insider and dishes out assurances that his partnership with Ruto would address the nation's most pressing concerns. Ruto Cabinet On the flip side, he insists that he is not a part of the Kenya Kwanza administration, despite the impeccable evidence suggesting he is. For instance, his allies sit in Ruto's Cabinet, with others recently made principal secretaries. Raila's statement undoubtedly seeks to bring to an end the tug of war between two factions that cannot agree about backing Ruto's administration. The two factions have existed in ODM since Ruto and Raila first shook hands. The first, ODM-in-government, supports the broad-based arrangement wholeheartedly, with the second, ODM-in-opposition, jittery about supporting the government perceived as unpopular. The differences are not just among ordinary party members, but members of ODM's decision-making organ, the Central Management Committee, whose members defy repeated warnings about singing Ruto's praises. Ruto's truce with Raila seems to gain the most support among lawmakers from Raila's backyard in the former Nyanza Province. Besides Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (National Treasury), other vocal supporters of the broad-based partnership are Raila's brother Oburu Oginga (Siaya Senator), Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, who is ODM's chairperson, and Members of Parliament Junet Mohamed (Suna East), Peter Kaluma (Homa Bay Town) and Samuel Atandi (Alego-Usonga). Atandi recently reaped from the handshake when he was made the chairperson of the National Assembly's Budget and Appropriations Committee. At the funeral of Raila's aide George Oduor last week, Wandayi, Oburu and Junet doubled down on their endorsement of the broad-based alliance, with Wandayi and Junet hinting that they would support Ruto's re-election bid in 2027. "From where we sit... there is no turning back. We have made a decision that we are working with you (Ruto) and we are doing this to the end," said Wandayi. The opposing side features Siaya Senator James Orengo, who has been unrelenting in his criticism of the Head of State. Last week, he reiterated this stance, saying he would not "sing praises" to anyone. "I cannot be praise-singing because we fought for a constitutional democracy, where people should talk... tell your leaders the truth," he said in Siaya. Last month, Orengo argued that it made little sense for ODM to bow to a deflated UDA, split since former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's impeachment last October. Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has made this point before, arguing that it made little sense for ODM to support a weakened Ruto, who he argued would drag the opposition party to another election loss. Despite overseeing the signing of the cooperation agreement between ODM and UDA has openly faulted the government. He openly challenged Ruto on the recent tear-gassing of school children over a play and breaking some of the provisions of the MoU. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi have also been a thorn in the flesh of pro-broad-based crusaders. He called out the President for lashing out at Sifuna and jesting that as a founder member of ODM, he could convene a meeting of founders to "discipline" the ODM secretary-general. Orengo and Sifuna have attracted the most backlash, with lawmakers and several other persons scathingly faulting them for criticising the Head of State. Babu, who previously described former President Uhuru Kenyatta's handshake with Raila as a "long con," is convinced the current one is not any better. Babu and Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba lead a youth-led opposition alliance, an alternative to the traditional opposition, largely in bed with the ruling coalition. Babu's ambitions to be Nairobi governor pose a challenge to ODM in satisfying equally ambitious politicians, such as Westlands MP Timothy Wanyonyi. Recently, there have been calls urging Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who has closely associated himself with Raila, to seek re-election through ODM. On Friday, Babu claimed he was consulting with his grassroots support on whether to vie for the presidency 2027. "Actually, as we speak, I will wait for the decision of the people. So, as of now, I am spoiled for choice. As I always say, leaders are chosen by God. And as at now, we over qualify to be the president of the Republic of Kenya. It is only because we know we can beat Ruto squarely. Squarely by a day before elections" he said during a mentorship session where he further encouraged the young generation to seek elective posts in 2027. "I want to encourage this generation, the Gen Zs, the millennials to participate in the forthcoming elections in 2027. Because they are the majority. That means that they can produce a president among themselves. They can produce any governor. So do not just participate by voting, but also participate by going for these elective seats," Babu said. Sharp debate In encouraging the sharp debate that threatens to split ODM, Raila's 20-year project, the former prime minister continues to send the mixed signals that have characterised his association with Ruto. He promised that the party would harmonise the different views, but such harmonisation has historically meant that Raila's decision was most likely already made. "ODM's role in the broad-based administration is a Raila decision. The rank and file will dance to Raila's tunes. Dissenting voices will be punished and their positions filled by loyal members," said political risk analyst Dismas Mokua. "Politicians like Mr James Orengo and Prof Anyang Nyong'o, who have in the past taken divergent positions, have been punished. They have had to kiss the king's ring to get back to political leadership." Before he signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Ruto last month, Raila conducted consultations in an exercise that seemed like a mere formality. When they met in February, the two had already agreed on the finer details of their deal. Firmly in control of ODM, Raila has never had to worry about his allies second-guessing him. More often than not, even the stubborn ones come around. That is changing, as historian Macharia Munene observed. "There was a time when no one would dare contradict Raila, but such contradictions have become common... It is an indication that Raila is no longer in control," said Prof Munene, a professor of history and international relations. He warned that the rebellion could see Raila lose grip in the same way Uhuru lost Mt Kenya ahead of the 2022 polls, where allies of the former President in the region openly challenged him. "It will be very hard for ODM to survive as it is, but something will exist that will call itself ODM, and it will go where Raila will be," Prof Munene added. Raila was here before when a generation rivalry threatened to rip through ODM in 2014 and amid the succession wars that rocked the party last year as the former prime minister sought a continental job that would have marked his retirement from local politics. Calming the current wave of opposition within ODM could be more challenging for Raila. While the opposition veteran has had his party threatened with splits before, the current situation is rather unique. The current situation may share some similarities with the opposition to Raila's handshake with Uhuru, but it is different in that the current debate assumes that the former premier will not contest the presidency in the next election. And so it seems like a fight for survival in an era in which Raila will have exited the political stage. The differences between the two camps have persisted longer than Raila may have wanted, casting doubt on whether the centre will hold for the 20-year-old party and the implications of a collapse on Raila's political future and Ruto's re-election chances. "The implications are not so much about Raila, but Ruto, who will have to convince people that he is different from the person they see... but a Ruto-Raila ticket would lose if elections were to be held today. Whatever happens in two years could be different," said Prof Munene. Perhaps owing to the Head of State's perceived vulnerability,' his allies are seemingly in agreement that they should avoid anything that could threaten the broad-based alliance. A collapsed ODM means a weaker Raila and, in effect, a deflated Ruto, who admitted last week that Raila is keeping his government stable. The President has been keen to court new regions amid untested assertions that he is losing ground in Mt Kenya. However, the situation is compounded by the increasing challenge ODM faces in traditional strongholds such as the former Western Province. Twenty-twenty-two might have been a bad year for Raila, who suffered his fifth loss in a presidential election, but it was an encouraging one for his party. It might not have been as good as 2007, when ODM bagged the most elective seats (99 of 208), but still somewhat good. URP dent An exodus of Ruto and his allies from the former Rift Valley Province into the defunct United Republican Party (URP) left the behemoth dented. Years of wrangles and claims of fraudulent party primaries saw ODM's fortune dwindle in 2013 and 2017, when it managed 96 and 76 seats (elected and nominated) at the National Assembly, respectively, out of 349. The 2007 and 2013 elections remain a jarring reminder of the impact of failing to forestall fallouts. Had Raila's ODM stuck with Kalonzo Musyoka's defunct ODM-Kenya, they would have had more MPs in 2007 and would have put a presidential victory beyond doubt. ODM was the largest individual political party in 2013, but it could have been stronger if Raila had kept Ruto as an ally, possibly producing more than 150 MPs and a victory in the presidential election. Ensuring ODM survives is critical to Raila in making sure it outlives him, which could only be guaranteed by ensuring the party is popular among the youth. Raila has built his party for the future, and has said as much. If he had previously thought about folding ODM, then he resisted such urges successfully. He showed no such hesitation previously when he merged the National Development Party with the independence party Kanu, and later when he abandoned the Liberal Democratic Movement, as he later marched in and out of the National Rainbow Coalition. On social media, it seems that Ruto is persona non grata among young Kenyans, a fact that has not seemed to deter Raila from associating with the President. "While he has made political mistakes and stands accused of betraying the Kenyan youth's interests and aspirations, there is no evidence to suggest that Mr Odinga's association with President Ruto will cost him substantial youth support. The probability does, however, exist of marginal losses. A good part of the youth from his core base remains aligned. This part of the youth does not subject voting preferences to logic," said Mokua.

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