Ruto on campaign overdrive as Raila stares at AUC moment of truth

President William Ruto and Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed at the National Palace, Addis Ababa in Ethiopia after bilateral talks between the two countries. [PCS] After months of whistle-stop campaigns, hopping from one capital to the next, Raila Odinga will today know his destiny as Africa's Heads of State and government cast their vote to determine who the next African Union Commission chair will be. President William Ruto was on a campaign overdrive on Friday, meeting several African heads in a last-minute campaign for the former Prime Minister's bid. Dr Ruto met the host, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and President's Bassirou Diomaye Faye (Senegal), Alassane Dramane Ouattara (Cote d'Ivoire), Abdelmadjid Tebboune (Algeria), Hakainde Hichilema (Zambia) and Draham Gokhool (Mauritius), who he met in the afternoon. The Kenyan delegation had engaged Cape Verde for a meeting to campaign for Raila. Meeting Gokhool two days after the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) "encouraged" its 16-member states to vote for Richard Randriamandrato, Madagascar's former Foreign Affairs minister, as the AUC chair was strategic in showing that Kenya could bag some votes from the bloc. Mauritius has previously endorsed Raila's bid, joining some other SADC countries in Kenya's AUC bid. Last August, Tanzania's President Samia Suluhu attended Raila's unveiling as Kenya's candidate at State House in Nairobi. Other SADC member states that have endorsed Raila are Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Seychelles. On Wednesday, SADC's Executive Secretary Elias Magosi asked countries within the 16-member-state body to vote for Randriamandrato, a candidate alongside Raila and Djibouti's Foreign Affairs Minister Mahamoud Youssouf. "Honourable Richard J Randriamandrato, a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Madagascar, has been shortlisted as the only candidate from the SADC region for the position of Chairperson of the African Union Commission... This letter, therefore, serves to encourage SADC Member States to support Mr Richard J Randriamandrato, a candidate from our region," a letter to SADC Foreign Affairs ministers reads in part. As he put up a brave face during an interview with Citizen TV, Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary Korir Sing'oei seemed to lament that Madagascar was allowed to field a candidate in the race as it "straddled" Eastern and Southern Africa. "From a technical standpoint, I think, really, Madagascar should not be on the ballot in regards to the Eastern region because if it was the turn of the Southern region, they could still contest. It gives them an unfavourable advantage," said Sing'oei. Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and President Kenya William Ruto talk after a closed session meeting ahead of the 38th African Union (AU) Summit, where leaders will elect a new head of the AU Commission, at the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa on February 14, 2025. [AFP] The AUC chairperson position is reserved for the Eastern Africa region, with the deputy allocated to Northern Africa. If the SADC letter had taken them aback, then Ruto and Raila did not show it. They have seemed upbeat and visibly confident of a victory. Raila, for instance, has worn a constant smile whenever we met him, with Ruto's demeanour giving no hints that his aggressive campaign was wearing him down. If anything, he has seemed fired up. "The President has been working calls since arrival yesterday. He had already held several strategic meetings with Heads of State to position our candidature. The President, during the next 48 hours, is engaging in last-minute conversations with colleagues, as is the Prime Cabinet Secretary," said Sing'oei, adding that Ruto was seeking "reassurances" from among his peers. Nairobi seems jittery about the possibility of suspending the election if none of the candidates secures 33 votes in all five rounds of voting. The mood among Raila's allies has been optimistic. Members of his campaign secretariat remain tight-lipped on virtually every subject and appear cautiously optimistic. In our informal engagements with them, they did not seem shaken by the SADC move that evidently rattled his allies who are not part of Raila's circle. A close ally of Raila's described Friday as very critical for the former premier, saying Raila's diary had been packed with meetings. They spoke off record, saying that they appreciated that they still had some work to do if Raila was to secure two-thirds of the vote from the 49 voting African states. Ruto's back-to-back meetings once again indicated the high stakes involved in the AUC election and the lengths the President would go to secure Raila's victory, which promises political benefits for the Head of State. Raila, who has unsuccessfully tried to be Kenya's president five times, today has the chance to change his fortunes. But his destiny lies in the hands of 35 Heads of State and their representatives, who vote this afternoon to elect Moussa Faki Mahamat's replacement as AUC chair. The AU headquarters was relatively deserted for much of Friday. It did not feature as many activities as Thursday when the continent's Foreign Affairs ministers met to elect AUC commissioners. The absence of dignitaries within the air-conditioned halls of the AU headquarters did not deter lobbying as was witnessed from Kenya's delegation championing Raila's candidature for the AUC chairperson position. Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga with Kenyans who joined him in Addis Ababa ahead of the election. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard] Raila has kept off the venue that decides the course his political career will chart. He mostly stays holed up at a plush Addis hotel, where he meets dignitaries. A host of his allies from Kenya also camp at the said hotel, offering moral support for the opposition veteran. Raila had lunch with Kenyan politicians within his "broad-based" alliance with Ruto, who included governors and lawmakers, at a restaurant not very far away from where he stays. "I have seen a very confident secretariat and a very confident Baba. We are very confident of victory," said Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir, who attended the pompous luncheon. Most of the politicians arrived in Africa's "capital" on Thursday evening and Friday morning. Their lunch with the former premier was a rare chance as Raila often met people who were more useful to his continental ambitions. On Wednesday, Ruto and Raila held meetings with foreign delegates that ran into the night. This is in line with a three-pronged strategy that Elkanah Odembo, the co-chairperson of Raila's campaign secretariat, told The Standard the secretariat would adopt. It involves reaching out to ambassadors, Foreign Affairs ministers and Heads of State. Ruto has engaged his peers, with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi leading the effort at the ministerial level. "We are confident. Raila has traversed 44 to 45 countries. President Ruto has engaged all the leaders across Africa. I have equally played a role with my counterparts as Ministers of Foreign Affairs... we are confident that the extensive campaigning will yield results," Mudavadi, also the Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary, told The Standard on Thursday. Odembo had said that the secretariat estimated Raila had secured 28 votes, which places him as a favourite to bag the position. Earlier in the morning, Ruto attended the High-Level Humanitarian Conference for the People of Sudan, which was held on the sidelines of the 38th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly.

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