Ruto government only good in PR, lacks strategy where it matters

Last weekend, it appears the Hustler Cabinet had quietly spread itself out across different parts of the country to distribute relief food.

This is interesting because despite an estimated 4.5 million people at high risk of starvation, the new administration does not seem keen on declaring it as an emergency. The administration does not also seem keen to have a structured way of appealing for partnership from the private sector or development partners in addressing the food crisis.

More curiously, the hustlers have reverted to the physical food distribution system that was abandoned a couple of years ago in favour of cash transfers. There were genuine reasons as to why the distribution of physical foodstuffs was discontinued and substituted with the cash transfer social protection programmes.

The primary reasons were that it demeans the beneficiaries and denies them the opportunity of choice for preferred food items given their specific household needs and cultural preferences.

The system was abused for political manipulation as a tool for logrolling and often was shrouded in corruption with expired foodstuffs being supplied and public officials stealing or selling the donated food to would-be beneficiaries and traders.

More importantly, the Social Protection Directorate has over the years developed a good database for key vulnerable beneficiary groups. For instance, in the period preceding the elections, the directorate mapped poor and vulnerable households in at least 24 counties including the eight counties that have been under the Hunger Safety Net Programme.

This fiscal year, another 17 counties have been prioritised for identification, registration and vetting of vulnerable households that can easily be implemented given the current situation in the country.

There is no question as to whether the government has any options on the need to provide assistance to suffering households. That is the only thing a responsible government can do in the circumstances. Besides, there are clear warning signs and indicators that we are going to be in this food crisis for several months ahead.

Gloomy days ahead

More households are likely going slip into the vulnerable category sooner than later. This is if the official statistics are correct.

The October 2022 Consumer Price Index indicates inflation stood at 9.6 per cent, way outside the policy margins of 52.5 per cent. These official estimates have been queried in some quarters since the prices of basic goods and services have more than tripled on supermarket shelves. But we can get a better insight on the actual situation at household level by looking at the individual price increases in the basket of goods and services tracked in the index.

The food and non-alcoholic beverages prices increased by 15.8 per cent; transport 11.6 per cent; and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels by 7.1 per cent between October 2021 and October 2022. This basket of items not only accounts for 57 per cent of the basket of 13 commodities or services tracked in the CPI index, but is also primary to every household existence.

The Quarterly Market Analysis report for July to September 2022 by the Kenya Institute for Policy Research and Analysis does not have any good news of the global, regional and national economy for 2022 and 2023 either. The global economic growth is projected to slow down to 2.7 per cent in 2023 from a projected 3.2 per cent this year. The advanced economies are projected to slow down to a 1.1 per cent growth in 2023. This implies potentially serious negative impact for exports of our produce and the recovering tourism sector.

Sub-Saharan Africa region is predicted to grow by 3.7 per cent in 2023, while the Kenyan national economic growth rate has been revised downwards to 5.3 per cent from 6.0 per cent projected by the National Treasury in April 2022.

Unsupported claims

As at the time of writing this article, the price of a 2kg packet of maize flour was still retailing at Sh200; wheat flour between Sh210-220; 1one litre of cooking oil at about Sh400 and a kilogramme of sugar at over Sh150 in my village within Machakos County.

Even in the main supermarkets in Nairobi, a quick online check indicates prices are only slightly lower where a product is on sale. This may explain palpable tensions among the hustler supporters across the country. In the past few weeks, hustler bloggers have been posting unsupported claims of price declines for these basic commodities on social media.

Expanding our horizons further, a quick check on the projected weather outlook for Nairobi and Lower Eastern for the next 14 days does not suggest there will be any meaningful rainfall over this period.

Having grown up in this region, the implication of lack of adequate rains through the month of November is another lost season. That is unless a miracle happens for the rains to be sustained past January 2023. I have not heard of any white smoke yet from the Rift Valley that now is the country's bread basket, but I have watched with horror news of coffee bushes drying up in Nyeri, of all places. The president acknowledged as much in his speech at the COP27 in Egypt earlier in the week.

Red flags

While I am reliably informed there are some communities that have requested for physical foodstuff as opposed the cash transfers, there is every reason to worry on the 'opaque' nature of the ongoing relief efforts. First, it has not been formally and publicly declared as an emergency response programme.

Thus, nobody knows who appropriated the funds because Parliament must allocate the resources under supplementary estimates. Even under emergency spending, a disaster or need must meet certain thresholds. It is on this basis that the Cabinet Secretary in charge of the National Treasury can authorise emergency spending awaiting Parliamentary approvals later.

Second, there are already development partners who are providing relief food in a number of regions. Unless we have an open and publicly approved and coordinated emergency response, it opens a grey window that can be exploited to siphon funds from public coffers.

What stops corrupt public officers and political elites from claiming foodstuffs distributed by development partners, often with their support, was purchased with public funds? Only a well-coordinated emergency response can guarantee an open, transparent, accountable and verifiable system.

Thirdly, it is not quite clear why the new administration seems to have bypassed a fully-fledged directorate of social protection in the administration of these initiatives. There are indications that the food distribution logistics are being handled by the little-known Kenya National Trading Corporation.

The Presidency has also taken a prominent role in food distribution. While it is the prerogative of the president to organise his government the way he deems fit to better run his administration, we cannot be blind to past trends and our history.

Any high volume and heavy in consumables programme of the government immediately after an election or before the election has never had a happy ending in this country.

That is why there is every reason to worry when this emergency response hasn't been formally structured with a centralised and publicly known coordinating agency.