It’s delicate balancing act for Raila as political ground shifts

ODM leader Raila Odinga and other leaders at the opening of Ugunja vocational training college in Siaya, last Friday. [Collins Oduor, Standard]

The covert dalliance of Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i in 2022 succession race has swelled the mist around opposition leader Raila Odinga’s actual game-plan.

With Raila often describing him as a son and warding off those calling out for his endorsement, the Matiang’i factor has come to rattle an already delicate succession matrix that also entails ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetangula.

With a possible referendum in the offing, a bulging legion of political creditors baying for his support, an Orange party requiring rebranding and a belligerent Deputy President William Ruto holding his ground, Raila’s hands are full and the task daunting.

Four stabs at the presidency and a successful installation of a regime in 2002, the man described as an enigma in Kenyan politics is increasingly edgy, restive and protective of his political cards.

“He is very hardworking man. As such, don’t remind me what I am supposed to do. Time is not ripe. Hold your horses,” Raila said of Matiang’i in Kisii on Friday.

The hints on Matiang’i came just a few weeks after he assured his Nyanza stronghold that the journey to Canaan was still on. The interpretation accorded to it by a section of media irked him to the point of threatening court action.

“Our client did not say that he is joining any presidential race, the aforesaid article undermines his efforts to help the country address delicate issues facing it. The said article improperly imputes and suggests that our client is pretentious, opportunistic, mischievous, of questionable integrity,” Raila’s letter reads.

The choice of his demands were equally significant; admission of liability, unconditional retraction and apology clearly stating that he did not join any presidential race. The letter from his lawyer came in quick succession to another protest by his ODM party.

According to party insiders, Raila is keen not to lose friends but also wants to gain more. During the 2017 elections, he campaigned on “last bullet” promise which earned him support from coalition partners and principals.

At the time, Kisii lacked a clear regional kingpin which in turn translated to lack of direction. In the ensuing confusion, area votes were for everyone’s scooping. Pundits fear the elevation of Matiang’i, supported by the area leadership is meant to address this gap.

“Our son qualifies to be the country’s president. We should walk together in this,” Nyamira Governor John Nyagarama told Raila as his Kisii counterpart James Ongwae told the former PM to teach Matiang’i a few things.

With Mudavadi, Matiang’i, Wetangula and Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya waiting on the sidelines, Raila has to get it right. They have all come through for him in some rainy days.

Raila’s first presidential contest was against former President Moi in 1997.

His 2007 face off with former President Kibaki is arguably one of the closest the opposition leader has come to the throne. Subsequent political battles have seen President Uhuru Kenyatta trounce him in contested elections in 2013 and 2017.

Political observers who had wanted to write off the opposition leader are reconsidering their views and argue that Raila’s uncanny way of reinventing the political wheel could see him be a formidable force in 2022.

But what exactly is Raila up to is a question that in the minds of his supporters and opponents.

“Some people have been saying I want to succeed President Kenyatta, which is a lie because the basis of the handshake was to address the issues that informed the formation of BBI,” Raila said in an interview with KTN on the sidelines of the just-concluded Turkana cultural festival, Tobong’u Lore, in Lodwar.

Those who have followed and studied the former premier’s politics will tell you that his statements, are not be taken at face value. In the run-up to the 2017 elections, Raila insisted that the NASA presidential candidate will be picked by a team that would evaluate the popularity of the candidates. “He has used this script for the last three elections, it’s now an open secret, the vigour of how he has rebuffed claims of his candidature is quite telling,” said former National Assembly deputy speaker Farah Maalim.

The Opposition leader argues that his handshake with Kenyatta should not be portrayed as a scheme to help him clinch power in 2022.

“I have not declared if I will contest for the presidency. I am currently focusing on the unity of Kenyans through the BBI,” he says.

Notably, if the ODM leader decided to go for the top seat, it will not be clear which one it will be given that during public hearings conducted by the BBI team, most Kenyans proposed an expanded executive.

BBI’s joint secretary Paul Mwangi told the Sunday Standard his team will table its report to the President and ODM leader in October.

The journey to a referendum on the 2010 Constitution is another treacherous road that the Opposition leader will have to walk as he seeks to have the structure of the Executive changed.

“What if the referendum fails? Because from where I sit, it will flatly flop,” says political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi. “It will go down with him.”

Its is the reality of such eventualities that are making the opposition leader jittery.

Political tiding

“Where is the problem? Raila has not changed and his political moves are well calculated,” Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi says.

Before the handshake, Raila’s political star was seen to be plummeting especially after the January 31,2018 mock swearing-in at Uhuru Park that was given a wide berth by NASA principles Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula.

In fact, before the mock swearing-in, the former Attorney General Githu Muigai had warned of dire consequence including the possibility of being charged with treason.

However, today, the political tiding has changed for the African Union High Representative on Infrastructure Development and he is now arguably one of the most powerful politicians with leaders, Cabinet Secretaries and clerics trooping to his private office at Capitol Hill.

“Raila is still the best bet for the country,” said former Machakos Senator Johnstone Muthama.