Real hunt for Western votes kicks off

By Peter Atsiaya, Renson Buluma and Francis Ontomwa

WESTERN; KENYA: After scraping through chaotic primaries, Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and Amani coalitions are laying the ground for a new battle to win as many MPs in Western as possible.

Analysts say the real battle for control of Western between Cord Presidential candidate Raila Odinga and his Amani counterpart Musalia Mudavadi is yet to begin.

“We have not seen anything yet in Western. The two leaders have a serious stake in the region and the battle is likely to be gruelling, now that they have been cleared to contest the presidency,” says Nathan Oyuga.

He adds that while Mr Mudavadi sees Western as his lifeline, Mr Odinga also wants a big chunk of it to help fill his basket.

Control of seats

Mr Mudavadi’s United Democratic Forum (UDF) and Mr Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) are the dominant political parties in the region.

After the primaries, the two leaders shifted their efforts to ensure they bag as many MPs, senators, governors and women representatives as possible after the March 4 General Election.

There are four counties in the region namely Kakamega, Bungoma, Vihiga and Busia. The region had 24 constituencies before the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Review Commission (IEBRC) added nine more.

Attention has now shifted to who between Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi will be in control of elective seats in Western.

In one basket

After parting ways with the Prime Minister and joining UDF, Mr Mudavadi has put up a spirited fight that has seen UDF eat into the popularity ODM enjoyed in the region.

Mr Odinga has also rallied his foot soldiers from the region led by Cabinet ministers Wycliffe Oparanya and Ababu Namwamba in his campaign to ward off Mudavadi’s influence. 

The DPM has stepped up his campaigns to lock out Mr Odinga and other opponents from the region and ensure residents put their votes in one basket.

Mr Mudavadi’s efforts were rewarded when Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa’s decided to back him in Amani coalition.

Other leaders that Mudavadi is working with to consolidate regional support include Housing minister Soita Shitanda, former Cabinet ministers Mukhisa Kituyi and Musikari Kombo and immediate former Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale.

Damage to PM

Mr Odinga has Cabinet ministers Moses Wetangula who is also the Ford-Kenya party leader, Paul Otuoma who handles  the Local Authorities portfolio, Regional Development minister Fred Gumo and former Attorney General Amos Wako.

Analysts say Mudavadi will win more parliamentary seats in the region, and that senatorial and gubernatorial positions can be shared between the two.

Professor Okumu Bigambo, a Communication consultant at Kenya Methodist University says the UDF euphoria might drown the Prime Minister.

Elusive unity

“The elections have taken a regional perspective and the Luhya community would want to be associated with one of their own. That happens to be Mr Mudavadi,” he says.

Moi University don Lumala Masibo says the Mudavadi-Wamalwa alliance might unite the Luhya community during the coming elections.

“The community’s unity has been elusive for a very long time. Members now feel they have finally achieved it through the Mudavadi-Wamalwa collaboration,” says Dr Masibo.

He says although Bungoma  will be a serious battlefield, Mudavadi is likely to get more support from the Bukusu sub-tribe even though one of Cord’s key principals, Trade minister Moses Wetangula comes from there.

Wetangula and Eugene are from Bukusu, the largest sub-tribe in Luhyaland.

The control of elective seats will see Mudavadi take charge of  Vihiga County, where he is likely to win the Sabatia seat through Nairobi businessman Alfred Agoi, who is flying UDF flag there.

Retaining presidency

Analysts say immediate former Vihiga MP Yusuf Chanzu could win the Vihiga constituency seat alongside Khalid Jiraini who might bag the Luanda seat.

Sports minister Ababu Namwamba disputes this, saying Mr Odinga is more popular in Western than Mr Mudavadi.

He alleges that Mr Mudavadi is a Jubilee coalition ‘project’. Jubilee is fronting Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta for the  top seat.

Addressing mourners in Busire village, Busia during the burial of John Oduol, an ODM supporter who allegedly died after being attacked by UDF supporters at Bumala trading centre three weeks ago, Mr Namwamba urged voters to reject Mr Mudavadi’s presidential bid.

He said recent opinion poll ratings indicate that the battle to succeed retiring President Kibaki was between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta. He said this was the opportunity for Western Kenya region to produce a president through the Cord alliance.

“Any vote for Mr Mudavadi is a spoilt one for the Prime Minister for it will enhance chances of retaining the presidency in Mt Kenya region,” said Mr Namwamba.

Leaders at the funeral castigated the Amani presidential candidate for not condemning the violent behaviours allegedly perpetuated by his supporters which resulted in the deaths of two people in Bungoma and Busia.