Exit Ayatollah, re-enter Pahlavi Dynasty?

A mourner holds a picture of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei at a memorial vigil, a day after his assassination in joint US and Israeli strikes, in Tehran on March 1, 2026. [AFP] "He is gone," a senior Israeli Embassy official in Nairobi told The Standard on Sunday night, confirming the death of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. The confirmation echoed an earlier announcement by Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who had publicly declared Khamenei's death. US President Donald Trump later reinforced the claim on his social media accounts. Khamenei's death brings to a close the three-decade rule of one of the Middle East's most polarising figures. His tenure was defined by deep diplomatic rifts with the West and punishing economic sanctions that few nations have endured. As crowds continue pouring in the streets to celebrate the death of the man they blame for all manner of issues bedeviling the Persian nation, some experts are calling on Israel and the US to rethink its strategy in the Middle East. They warn that if what happened in Syria, Libya and Iraq is anything to go by, then Washington could be walking into another marsh. The forbearance of Iran lies in its enduring legacy as one of the old civilisations in the Middle East and the larger Gulf region. According to Prof Macharia Munene, a specialist in diplomacy and geopolitics, the history of Iran dates back to the Roman Empire under Cyrus The Great, who started Persia at around 500 BCE, created the Persian Empire, and freed the Hebrews from Babylonian Captivity. However, for over 2,500 years, Iran was ruled by various powers, including the Achaemenid, Seleucid and Parthian empires among others, before the Pahlavi Dynasty took over in 1925. But before the egregious anti-climax that Iran now finds itself in, there were protests in December 2025 and January 2026 over the state of the economy. Thousands were killed even as the US threatened to intervene militarily. One of the constant critics of the Islamic regime has been Reza Pahlavi, an exiled Crown Prince of Iran who resides in Maryland, USA, and who, from his recent comments on the regime in Tehran speaks of a man keen on returning to take power as the new king. Prof Peter Kagwanja, the Chief Executive of Africa Policy Institute and an Analyst on Regional and International Affairs, says: "Reza Pahlavi, 65, the son of the late Shah of Iran, with Western support, is positioning himself as the leader of the successor government. But history has shown that governing Iran, even with external support, is not a walk in the park. The Iranians, not the external players, will determine who governs in Tehran". He adds: "The world is witnessing the most seismic and controversial regime change in modern history. The change in Iran is poised to deepen instability, turbulence and uncertainty in the international order." Prof Munene is also of a similar view. "Trump can try to return an imposed monarch but it will be difficult for it to last. Post-Khamenei Iran will be chaotic, almost like Libya before stabilising in the hands of a strong leader that might emerge." So far, the ruling council in Iran has appointed Alireza Arafi as the Interim Supreme Leader. This could point to an effort by the ruling class to continue its rule.But the risk lies in Israel. Judging from its 12-day war on Iran in 2025, it is very clear that Tel Aviv has been leading the charge against Tehran, with the backing of Washington. It its 2025 attacks, several top ranking Iranian officials were killed. In the current operations, several senior officials, including Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Commander of The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammed Pakpour, were eliminated. According to Kagwanja, it is in the interest of Tel Aviv to obliterate the Iranian leadership structure. "Netanyahu is inching closer to totally destabilising perhaps the last of Israel's mortal enemies: Iran, after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Muamar Gadaffi's Libya and Beshar Assad's Syria," he adds. As for the Iranian Crown Prince who has never stopped dreaming of ruling his late father's nation, the two experts are warning him further. "This vulnerability of the puppet Shah monarchy was at the heart of the 1979 revolution, raising questions of the viability and sustainability of the return of the Shah regime in a post-Khamenei Iran," says Kagwanja. After the fall of his father, King Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's kingdom in 1979, the family was scattered across the world, with some dying in isolation and surviving ones living in total obscurity. King Mohammad Reza Pahlavi himself died in Cairo, Egypt, where he was accorded a State funeral after being tossed around the world, abandoned by the Jimmy Carter administration.

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