The Sh3.3 trillion illegal debt in William Ruto's regime

President William Ruto has been big on mega projects, the most notable of which is his affordable housing programme. [File, Standard] President William Ruto's administration borrowed some Sh3.3 trillion unlawfully over the last three years, a fraud expert, who has uncovered mega corruption scandals in the past, has claimed. Bernard Muchere, a certified fraud examiner who worked as an auditor at the National Treasury for four decades, argues that Kenya Kwanza's loans do not tally with the development projects it has implemented. Muchere points out that only Sh958 billion has gone to development out of the Sh4.2 trillion; he says, Ruto's administration has incurred in public debt. Ruto has been big on mega projects, the most notable of which is his affordable housing programme. "If we assume that the development expenditures were financed by borrowings only (no tax revenue was used), it means WSR borrowed unlawfully (odious debts) of approximately Sh3.3 trillion (being Sh4.2 trillion minus Sh958 billion)," Muchere said in a press statement. He draws his figures from the Statements of Actual Revenues and Net Exchequer Issues for the financial years ending June 2023, 2024 and 2025, a document gazetted monthly by the National Treasury cabinet secretary. During the stated period, Muchere notes that the government has collected some Sh6.7 trillion in taxes. "It means Wananchi have financed WSR (William Samoei Ruto) with Sh10.9 trillion within three years to finance their programmes; however, there is nothing to show on the ground," he added. An independent analysis by The Standard showed a minor variance in the tax revenue as stated by Muchere, resulting in a figure closer to Sh6.4 trillion. This variance is explained by the fact that Muchere included the opening balance in each financial year as well as non-tax revenue in his tabulations, and we only used the tax revenue segment of the statements of actual revenue. The other figures, a loan portfolio worth Sh4.2 trillion and development funds worth Sh958 billion, tally. During the three years, Kenya Kwanza spent Sh4 trillion to fund recurring expenses and an equal amount to service debt. Muchere premises his argument that the Sh3.3 trillion in debt is odious on the fact that the law only allows for long-term borrowing to fund development. That is hardly the case in Kenya, whose debt-ridden economy has always relied on more borrowing to stay afloat. Thus, successive governments have borrowed to fund recurring expenses and to repay loans. The fraud expert, who uncovered the Sh5 billion Ministry of Health corruption scandal and the Ronald Ngala Utalii College scandal, among others, has been vocal against borrowing saying it created a loophole for fraud. Controller of Budget Margaret Nyakang'o and Auditor General Nancy Gathungu have also faulted this practice, justified by state functionaries as necessary to plug budget shortfalls. "Since the incurrence of loans is an imposition of a tax in advance, because loans are repaid from taxes, borrowing Sh4.2 trillion means WSR imposed more taxes concealed as borrowings. This amounts to outright defrauding the very Wananchi who were promised less taxation during the hyped campaigns of 2022," said Muchere. Ken Gichinga, the chief economist at Mentoria Economics, described Kenya's debt cycle, which sees the country borrow to pay loans, as "vicious". Under the current circumstances, he implies that it is not feasible for the country to sustain its recurrent budget from taxes. "The quality of revenue collection is low because of our current fiscal and economic policies, which have seen our economy performing below expectations. Until we fix our tax policy and enable it to boost businesses, we will keep burdening Kenyans with more taxes," said Gichinga, who added that Kenya could grow its revenues with a progressive tax policy.

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