We need to think beyond ‘Big Four’ and Vision 2030

The Jubilee regime has finally identified four super ordinate goals that will be the lynch pin of its second term in power.

The Big Four agenda has become a byword in public forums, legislative forums and soon in academia, which curiously in Kenya prefers following instead of leading. We can blame the tradition of citations. It is not clear why inclusivity and building political bridges espoused by the handshake are not part of the Big Four.

The Big Four was part of the State of the nation address, a concept borrowed from America, where it is called State of the Union address.

I will soon do a plagiarism check for our 2010 Constitution.

The Big Four ended Jubilee’s strategic drift that characterised its first term in power. Now they have a central focus.

It is not clear how the Big Four was identified or who identified them. It is an idea swallowed in collective responsibility.

Unlike in the US where there is a council of economic advisers or National Economic Council that advises the president, we don’t have a formal one here. The National Economic and Social Council which originated Vision 2030 has been relegated.

Further, our regimes do not have intellectual homes or fathers. Great economic ideas like trickle-down economic or deregulation have homes in certain universities or linked to specific economists.

Alfred Kahn is linked to deregulation while Milton Freidman is linked to free markets and Chicago School. Behind Margaret Thatcher, economics policies were invisible hands of Milton Friedman and Frederick Hayek, famous for his book, “The Road to Serfdom.”

The Big Four constitutes a big shift and unlike infrastructure that leaves a concrete legacy, it touches our souls - our most basic instincts. Health is personal and is valued by both the affluent and the poor.

Housing is personal; we all go home after a day’s work. Food is personal; you can’t eat on behalf of someone else.

The only big four that deviates from our souls is manufacturing.

But it also contributes to our well-being because it ought to create jobs that ensure access to good health, food and housing.

There have been debates on what was left out in the Big Four. Some say education while others identify infrastructure. To address this question, why not compare the Big Four with the contents of Vision 2030.

Financial services

The economic pillar has infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, trade, manufacturing, business process off-shoring and information technology enabled services and financial services. From here, only manufacturing and agriculture were picked. Social pillar has education and training, health, environment, housing and urbanisation, gender, children and social development, youth, and sports.

Health and housing were picked. From the political pillar and macros and enablers, none of the contents made it to the Big Four list.

They could be part of other ongoing programmes. Are the Big Four the low lying fruits in Vision 2030? It seems at the core of the Big Four is social transformation, which we can assume will lead to economic transformation. Was it a realisation that economic transformation without a social foundation is hollow?

Was the Big Four informed by the post-election violence of 2008 which took place despite the robust economic growth in Kibaki’s first five years? The departure from hardnosed economics makes the Big Four agenda different but has precedents.

It echoes the US Great Society under Lyndon Johnson, whose main goals were ending poverty, reducing crime, abolishing inequality and improving the environment. The housing effort mirrors Singapore’s after divorce from Malaysia. Universal healthcare mirrors Canada’s.

Food security is the hallmark of developed countries and a source of national pride. Ever wondered why there is no famine in developed nations despite bad weather.

In manufacturing, we are yet to get the benchmark. Should it be India with her software or Japan with her electronics and cars?

Should it be Germany and her autos? I suggest a focus on a few high qualities and well-branded products.

We also must identify production centres. Do we have the skills and positive attitudes to jumpstart industrialisation? How can we put manufacturing among the Big Four and yet don’t want mechanical tea pickers? That is some food for thought.

The writer teaches at the University of Nairobi