Pressure mounts on Egypt to change stance on Nile treaty

By Peter Okong’o

Egypt’s anger over the signing of the new Nile treaty is being countered with criticism of its intransigence over the years to discuss a review of an old agreement that gave the country virtual ‘veto’ power over use of the waters of Lake Victoria and the River Nile.

Egypt has dismissed the Co-operative Framework Agreement by five Nile Basin countries — Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda — as "non-binding" and "illegal".

DRC and Burundi are also expected to sign soon, leaving Egypt and Sudan in the cold, although the door has been left open for them to sign.

Water Minister Charity Ngilu and Assistant Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri during the signing of the Nile Basin Co-operative Framework at Maji House, Nairobi, on Thursday.

A boy jumps into River Nile at an Egyptian village. Photo: Courtesy

They want to transform the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) into a permanent Nile River Commission to manage the water resources on behalf of all Nile basin states.

The first Nile Treaty in 1929 gave Egypt the right to block any developments upstream of the River Nile, including dams, irrigation works and pumping stations.

And when the last Nile Treaty was signed in 1959, giving Egypt and Sudan the lion’s share of the Nile waters (86 per cent or 73 million cubic metres), Uganda’s population was just six million and Ethiopia’s 20 million. Today, this has grown to over 25 million and 85 million respectively.

Water scarcity

Accompanying this population growth has been a growing scarcity of water for farming and domestic use along the Nile basin, while the demand for electricity has outstripped supply, increasing pressure on the governments to build more hydropower stations along Africa’s longest river.

Even worse for Egypt, new studies show that by 2017, even with minimal exploitation by the NBI states, the river’s waters will not be enough to support its needs. This is borne out by the fact that millions of its citizens already suffer acute water shortages daily.

In other words, Egypt should seek more efficient use of water within its borders, as nothing that other NBI states do will affect the flow of the Nile significantly this decade.

At the core of Egypt’s argument has always been a doomsday scenario, arguing that its entire economy is dependant on the waters of the Nile.

Water will become the biggest flashpoint for conflict in the region in the coming decades, as climate change and poor water use cuts supply to a trickle, but war is unlikely.

Many argue that Egypt is better off reaching a deal with other NBI states rather than opting for outright confrontation.

In any case, its biggest ally, landlocked Sudan, has its own problems with the restive Government of Southern Sudan and the conflict in Darfur, while Egypt is facing a presidential election.

Unlike Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Egypt has never embraced the building of desalination plants to exploit the limitless water from the Red and Mediterranean seas, arguing that it is too expensive.

While attacking the treaty, sections of the international media have not spared Egypt’s government, saying it has failed to diversify its water resources and is now reaping the results.

There has been a flurry of diplomatic activity by Egypt to try and rally opposition to the treaty in the European Union and the World Bank, among other key donors.

Foreign donors

Egypt’s hope is that these donors will lean on Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Uganda to revoke the treaty, or lose funding for projects financed under NBI.

Funds for the programme are channelled through The Nile Basin Trust Fund, managed by the World Bank, but NBI countries also give their share.

Unfortunately, that argument has been given short thrift by other NBI countries who signed the treaty, Kenya included, who want equal say over use of the Nile waters.

Furthermore, any hole in funding due to a boycott by Western donors would likely be quickly filled by China, which is now one of Africa’s biggest development partners, and has been pouring aid into the continent and writing off debts.

By 2008, that aid was worth $107 billion.