Ruto is presenting the sponsors of plebiscite with tough choices

It is possible that a referendum to amend the Constitution will be attempted in 2019. The question of a referendum first came into public discussion after the surprise handshake, in March last year, between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga and was immediately interpreted as forming the fine print in the mysterious agreement between the two.

At the start of his second term, there was already increasing evidence that Kenyatta had started cold-shouldering his deputy, William Ruto, a close companion of the president during Jubilee’s first term in office. When Ruto went missing from the handshake ceremony, this immediately gave rise to speculation that his position in Jubilee, once so secure, was now under threat.