Is Jubilee raid on Raila's NASA a ploy to weaken the Opposition?

Deputy President William Ruto (left) confers with former Kajiado Governor David Nkedianye when he received him from the oposition to Jubilee on 11 October 2017 [photo/PETERSON GITHAIGA]

The recent wave of political defections from the National Super Alliance (NASA) to the Jubilee Party is likely to weaken the Opposition ahead of the repeat presidential election.

Although NASA presidential candidate Raila Odinga has downplayed the defections, terming them the work of August 8 bitter losers seeking political mileage, analysts argue they might hurt his support base if he decides to take part in the October 26 poll.

“Jubilee has set aside money from the Treasury called Jubilee Defectors Fund. It’s an auction,” Raila said after meeting a delegation from Kajiado County at Okoa Kenya offices in Nairobi on Monday.

But Jubilee politicians say those joining the party are doing so on their own will.

Nakuru Senator Susan Kihika believes Raila is fast losing his influence.

Political destiny

“Some politicians have realised there is nothing much Raila has to offer and they need to chart their own political destiny away from him,” says Kihika.

But even as Raila spoke, former Kajiado Governor David Nkedianye, who was an ODM point man in the county, was being received by Deputy President William Ruto.

His defection had been preceded by that of ODM officials in the county, who joined Jubilee last month.

But it is the decision by Mombasa governor race loser Hassan Omar that has rattled the opposition chief and forced him to break his silence on defections of NASA leaders to Jubilee.

Omar was a key opposition pillar at the Coast until he fell out with Wiper Party leader and Raila’s running mate Kalonzo Musyoka over matters to do with the August 8 General Election.

Before his move to Jubilee, the former Mombasa senator resigned as Wiper Secretary General after losing the gubernatorial contest to ODM’s Hassan Joho.

Political analyst Philip Chebunet says Omar’s move has completely disoriented NASA at the Coast.

“It means that if Raila will be on the ballot on October 26, he and his NASA brigade must come up with a very clever strategy to counter Omari’s defection. As it stands now, the opposition has been weakened,” says Dr Chebunet, a political science lecturer.

The departure of former Taita Taveta Governor John Mruttu, another key opposition figure in the Coast, presented another blow to NASA.

Mruttu complained bitterly after ODM nominations in April, claiming that he was rigged out and that perhaps might have informed his defection. He defended his seat as an independent candidate but lost to Granton Samboja.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party has targeted key opposition personalities in perceived NASA strongholds, especially in Western, Coast, parts of Nyanza, Eastern and Rift Valley.

Within a short time, the party has brought on board former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, who was also a NASA co-principal and founder of Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM).

Biggest beneficiary

Unsuccessful Bungoma governor contestant Alfred Khangati, former Funyula MP Paul Otuoma, who also lost Busia governor race and former Budalan'gi MP Ababu Namwamba are some of the leaders from Western Kenya now working with Jubilee.

Uhuru and Ruto have also received a large number of former and current politicians from the Luhya community, including Fred Gumo, Cyrus Jiringo, Musikari Kombo, Kenneth Marende, Moses Akaranga and Benjamin Washiali.

Yussuf Chanzu, a trusted lieutenant of Amani National Congress (ANC) leader Musalia Mudavadi has also bolted out.

But the biggest catch and beneficiary of all is former Bungoma Governor Kenneth Lusaka who JP influenced to be elected the Senate Speaker.

Former Meru Governor Peter Munya, who crafted a working relationship with NASA after losing to Kiraitu Murungi, also changed his mind only four days later and decided to work with the President’s party.

Jubilee is now behaving like KANU which, immediately after independence and when multi-party politics was allowed in 1991, spent a lot of time and resources to weaken the opposition.

Like his father Jomo Kenyatta and predecessor Daniel Moi, Uhuru spends much of his time receiving “goodwill” delegations from Opposition strongholds at all State Houses and Lodges, as well as public rallies.

Hardly a day passes without defections from NASA to Jubilee.

National Assembly Deputy Speaker Moses Cheboi says the rain started beating the opposition the day it bungled its nominations, when even those who stood with its affiliate parties for long lost tickets controversially.