Raila’s win will depend on what he utters from now on

As we move closer to the 2017 General Election, one thing is clear in my mind. The NASA coalition is edging closer to victory. In 2013, people in my home county of Isiolo voted overwhelmingly for Jubilee, this time around, a large majority have been bitten by the NASA bug. People are singing NASA all over not just in Isiolo, but also in places like Meru that were considered the bedrock of the Jubilee coalition.

It is a throwback to 2007 in the wake of the Orange wave that swept through the country, though former South African Justice Johann Kriegler, who led a team investigating the disputed 2007 presidential elections said deciding who the winner of that election was, was difficult. The build-up to that election pointed at a Raila win.

Free advice

Considering these gains, I would like to give some unsolicited advice to Raila. Jubilee is suffering a self-inflicted crisis of confidence and the overwhelming trust the people of Kenya are giving him requires that he changes tack. Where we have reached, I don't see most people changing their minds on whom to vote for, barring a monumental calamity. Last Friday's ruling by the Court of Appeal allowing the tally of the presidential results to be announced at the constituency level has only bolstered the confidence of the Opposition and that is why I believe Raila should start acting presidential.

Obviously, various institutions in Government will portray Mr Odinga as a warmonger and a candidate for the International Criminal Court at The Hague. Mr Odinga should not fall for this trap. Recently, the police issued instructions on who can and cannot be allowed in the polling stations on the D-day.

This to me is another attempt by the Government side to provoke Raila. Previously, Raila has found himself entangled in needless fights. That distracts the team and takes away energy that is needed in the campaign trail. Any further declarations on what to do or not to do around the elections should be left to the lower-level coalition officials, certainly not Raila. A president is expected to portray a symbol of unity and not trouble shooter. A presidential candidate who never sees a fight he doesn't want to get involved in erodes his stature and standing.

Touchy issues

Around these elections, some emotive issues keep cropping up. Recently, when Raila advised the Maasai community to avoid selling their land, immediately several Government mouthpieces yelled that the NASA flag bearer was instigating tribal animosity. Of course on close observation, he never really incited the Maasai but advised them to stop disposing of their land cheaply only to complain later. The message that came out was twisted to portray Mr Odinga as a war-monger and in the unfortunate event of a tribal clash between various ethnic groups around the election time, then the Jubilee side would simply start claiming that he was responsible and his utterances contributed to the conflict.

The less Mr Odinga now wades into controversial matters the better for him and NASA. The public is watching. Restraint is the word here. Comments about any planned rigging should be credible and backed with concrete facts. So far he has managed to get Jubilee busy fighting his statements. That is clever. Additionally, he needs to avoid denigrating national institutions such as the IEBC and the Judiciary or even the military. Any further vilification of the IEBC might create the impression in the voters' minds that IEBC is partial and consequently this might lead to voter apathy. Put it this way, since the voters know that the IEBC is not to be trusted, why bother voting?

The truth is, voter apathy will only hurt NASA, which now wants to increase its victory margins in an election that will be determined solely by voter turnout. The NASA brigade should also refrain from attacking personalities. That turns off the undecided, the fence-sitters. To whom Jubilee means little and could want to try something new in NASA. The essence is that any government-in-waiting should behave like one. To achieve the 10 million tally means getting out as many people as possible to vote.

Mr Guleid is the Deputy Governor, Isiolo County [email protected]