To stay at the top Jubilee must seal weak points

Watching Raila Odinga thrust the Murang’a “secret” water tunnel into the national limelight affirms what even his worst detractors will accept; his political instincts are top notch, and they operate optimally when he is at his weakest. The converse is also true; Raila makes his worst mistakes when he is at his peak! His greatest gifts include an ability to sense his opponents’ vulnerabilities and exploit them to his fullest advantage.

Numerous instances of this capacity exist in the political terrain but I will pick two. The bungled Okoa Kenya referendum was one of the former PM’s lowest moments. Either because of ineptitude at the secretariat or just plain laziness by his team, the much-touted referendum, which was to raise 7 million signatures, could hardly raise a million.

This was the ultimate embarrassment for the CORD team. Many in Jubilee naively wrote Raila off and moved on to discussions about 2022 on the assumption that 2017 would be a Jubilee walkover. Raila must have realised that in its celebratory mood Jubilee was vulnerable; the party could not countenance any scenario where its definite win could be delegitimised. To guarantee an acceptable outcome, IEBC commissioners going home was a price that Jubilee was willing to pay if pushed sufficiently. Raila also knew the Government was between a rock and a hard place, if it protected IEBC too much, it would be affirming Raila’s position that these commissioners were Jubilee stooges.

The weekly protests in Nairobi did not therefore proceed for too long before a political compromise was cobbled up. In substance, CORD did not make significant gains in the settlement. Indeed, Jubilee left the table with a fair amount of success, but Raila had exploited Jubilee’s vulnerability and forced it on a path it had not planned on. The “win” had re-energised his base and elevated Raila back to a central player in Kenya’s politics, especially when assessed against the other “principals.”

The Murang’a “whistle blow” follows the same trend. Raila knows very well that post devolution natural resource sharing is a delicate matter. For Murang’a especially, this is extremely sensitive; a significant portion of Murang’a County is arid and many homes do not have access to clean water. At a political level, Murang’a has always felt shortchanged in that the three Kikuyu Presidents have come from Kiambu and Nyeri counties. Most Murang’a people believe that but for the entry of the Nyeri led DP in 1992, Matiba, a Murang’an was assured of being President.

In these circumstances, an allegation that the current government was exploiting Murang’a resources for the benefit of greater Nairobi, which will naturally include parts of Kiambu, was sure to raise concern in Murang’a and make Jubilee uncomfortable.

Now, any one who bothers to follow national issues knows there’s no secret in this matter, it has been the subject of discussions by Murang’a leaders including resolutions at the Murang’a County Assembly and had even been the subject of court action. But to his credit, Raila has raised the profile of the matter and forced it on national discourse.

Raila has no expectation that this will give him any significant votes in central Kenya, courtesy of our ethnic voting patterns. He however managed to once again define the national conversation and harvest some dissent in central Kenya against government, which may depress voter turnout in a Jubilee stronghold, to his advantage.

What lessons are there for Jubilee from these and many more instances where Raila has caught them flatfooted and managed to spin a narrative that forces Jubilee to play defence? I wish to suggest that any time Raila looks weak and vulnerable is the time to be alert. Right now Jubilee is salivating at the obvious discord in CORD (pun intended). Rather than gloat at CORD’s misfortunes, this would be a good time to be on the look out for Raila’s next move by assessing where Jubilee’s greatest vulnerabilities lie. We have only 10 months to the next election. It will be tough going for CORD to remove an incumbent, but having watched Raila in the last year, Jubilee would be well advised not to start uncorking the champagne bottles just yet.