Raila can’t win war on defectors

Opposition leader Raila Odinga. (Photo: Kipsang Joseph)

Opposition leader Raila Odinga has opened a new warfront in the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy. In his cross-hairs are defectors to Jubilee.

His fellow co-principals with sizeable shareholding that allows them to sit on the high-table during CORD's shareholders' meeting – Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford-Kenya) – have decided those from their side that have technically joined Jubilee be left to grapple with their consciences and voters' wrath.

Now this is a war one cannot win. It is counter-productive because it diverts the time and energy from more urgent matters Mr Odinga should be focusing on if he hopes to beat Jubilee, which is growing bigger and more hard-headed every day.

There are several reasons why chasing defectors around is like running (as PLO Lulumba puts it) after mosquitoes with a hammer. It is not just that the weapon is too big but chances of hitting one of the insects is nil!

Whereas it is true the new laws bar defections, it should also be noted that unless one puts his or her defection in writing, in law it is almost impossible to prove.

In any case, the defectors of these days have grown more tactful and cunning, hiding behind the cover of "seeking development for the people" and the freedom to associate with whoever one chooses.

Yes, Mr Odinga and his lieutenants are justified to feel bitter over characters that rode on the wings of their parties to the National Assembly, Senate or governor's office.

It is a sign of ingratitude, to say the least, to do this to Baba, they must be telling themselves. But then this is a moral rather than a legal question.

The main complication is that you soon realise that it does not deter those inside from leaving or covertly working with "enemy" parties until the opportune time to jump ship. Both coalitions, in a season like this, should brace for more defections.

The key motivation of defectors is to improve their chances of re-election.

You can't fault them even if they make you feel like a jilted lover. More effort should instead be channelled to winning a better replacement. That is what lovers who have been dumped finally find solace in after their heartbreak.

Also, consider that in an election cycle, at least 60 per cent of all elected leaders are shown the door. So you may be fighting with defectors, many of whom are diminishing political assets.

Well, you may argue that this is debatable because some of them are good to have, even if they are going to lose anyway, so as to be seen as having the face of Kenya in your party ranks and that yours is a party to join not an abandoned hut.

But someone with a different train of thought would tell you that in some of these cases, the defections open for you an opportunity to bring in those with higher chances of winning seats. That, to me, is what should happen.

That is what Mr Odinga had started doing when Ababu Namwamba left in a huff. (Mr Namwamba's vehicle seems to have got stuck in the mud somewhere on the road before reaching the Jubilee castle). But Tinga seems to have changed mind and to concentrate on ODM's tenth birthday and the battle with defectors.

As it is, Mr Odinga is looking more like the chap who chases the rats fleeing the fire eating up his house instead of quenching it. In fact, the assumed shame and loss from defections diminishes the moment you look at them as an opportunity for self-cleansing and renewal. It is just like the way the body gets rid of old blood cells. In fact, in some of the characters, there is a reason to believe leaving may actually be good riddance.

The other advantage of defections is that they remove from your team those that have one leg in and another out. Here, the old saying associated with former US President Lyndon B Johnson; that there are some guys you would rather have inside peeing out rather than outside peeing into your tent. For this is the moment for parties to focus on strength, popularity, commitment and loyalty.

This counterbalances the argument that the defections inflict a mortal wound by haemorrhaging those parties because the recipient group will use them in its psychological warfare; that your party is losing its grip in certain strongholds.

Also, engaging in fights with defectors is not only a distraction but it also casts one as intolerant, vindictive and draconian; the three negative attributes that Mr Odinga's fearful but critical associates talk about freely when discussing the man's weakness.

Again, why would Mr Odinga allow himself to cast the image of a man shaken by defections?

Finally, the defections fight is like a cat-fight, because the court battles, injunctions and counter-injunctions, and appeals will run until after 2017! So ask yourself what gain there is in this fight Tinga has got himself onto.