ANALYSIS: How Jubilee Alliance Party would shape the presidential race in 2017 and beyond

There are reports that Deputy President William Ruto will be leading the re-election campaigns of President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017 under the new Jubilee party as party leader. Jubilee will be going into the elections as a party and not as a coalition like it was the case in 2013. The narrative in 2017 will have to change from the anti-ICC/anti-West rhetoric of 2013 to a persuasive tale of the government’s achievements in delivery. Meru Senator, Kiraitu Murungi is touted to be the Deputy Party leader when the party is officially launched. This is clearly an indication of the direction President Uhuru’s succession would take should Jubilee win the 2017 elections. The move puts to rest speculations of a possible “fall out” between the two coalition partner following the ICC “fixing” debate and “revelations”.

It follows that, should Jubilee win the 2017 elections, then realignments and positioning for President Uhuru’s succession both nationally and in the Mount Kenya region would start in earnest. Uhuru would be expected to also personally lead campaigns for election of Ruto in 2022, not only in his backyard, but also countrywide. Who would be Ruto’s running mate in 2022 given the arrangement that brought together the two main political blocs in Jubilee? I bet the Deputy Party leader in Jubilee. This places Senator Kiraitu in a strategically powerful position should he become the party’s deputy leader. President Uhuru will also feel indebted to appreciate and reward the steadfast support and solidarity the Meru people have given him in his election and the election of Kibaki before him.