ANALYSIS: How Jubilee Alliance Party would shape the presidential race in 2017 and beyond

There are reports that Deputy President William Ruto will be leading the re-election campaigns of President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017 under the new Jubilee party as party leader. Jubilee will be going into the elections as a party and not as a coalition like it was the case in 2013. The narrative in 2017 will have to change from the anti-ICC/anti-West rhetoric of 2013 to a persuasive tale of the government’s achievements in delivery. Meru Senator, Kiraitu Murungi is touted to be the Deputy Party leader when the party is officially launched. This is clearly an indication of the direction President Uhuru’s succession would take should Jubilee win the 2017 elections. The move puts to rest speculations of a possible “fall out” between the two coalition partner following the ICC “fixing” debate and “revelations”.

It follows that, should Jubilee win the 2017 elections, then realignments and positioning for President Uhuru’s succession both nationally and in the Mount Kenya region would start in earnest. Uhuru would be expected to also personally lead campaigns for election of Ruto in 2022, not only in his backyard, but also countrywide. Who would be Ruto’s running mate in 2022 given the arrangement that brought together the two main political blocs in Jubilee? I bet the Deputy Party leader in Jubilee. This places Senator Kiraitu in a strategically powerful position should he become the party’s deputy leader. President Uhuru will also feel indebted to appreciate and reward the steadfast support and solidarity the Meru people have given him in his election and the election of Kibaki before him.

By virtue of his position, party Leader William Ruto will be in a position to, personally, lead President Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election campaign in 2017. He will be effectively sending a clear message to his critics and pundits who expected fallout between him and the president towards 2017. This is due to the “who fixed who in ICC” debate which the two appear to have effectively risen above. He will also be sending a clear message to CORD’s Raila Odinga who has never hidden his desire to work with him again in 2017 that he is in Jubilee to stay. He will also be sending a clear message to President Uhuru Kenyatta that come 2022, it will be his time to return the favour by leading his campaigns personally.

Strategically, the new Jubilee party (reportedly Jubilee Alliance Party) will have to come up with a new campaign narrative. This is because the anti-ICC/ anti- West narrative of 2013 will no longer be necessary or useful. The new narrative will most likely be a very persuasive highlight of the government’s achievements since 2013. Jubilee advisors and spin-doctors will definitely have a very heavy task of trying to dispel the counter narrative of corruption and mismanagement of the economy by Jubilee, which CORD is most likely to use very effectively.

Be that as it may, and assuming this arrangement works for Jubilee in both 2017 and 2022 elections,  Senator Murungi will  be one of the happiest achievers. He may just get a chance of serving as the country’s Deputy President between 2022 and 2032. As to whether he may be a future Presidential candidate, age would be his disadvantage. However, he could use his political experience and powerful position to groom a candidate of his choice to run for the Presidency in 2032.

This analysis is just a pure assumption of what the scenario would be should Jubilee win in 2017 and 2022 elections keeping all factors constant. However, a win by Cord in either of the two elections would be a complete game changer and this analysis would hold no water.