Here's what Raila Odinga can do to beat JAP

Allow us to avoid the niceties of introduction for another day and to address you on one urgent and pressing political issue on two levels, personally and the institution you have become.

What prompts it is a statement attributed to Deputy President William Ruto around October, 2011 while on suspension from the Cabinet that, he would – take it to the bank - definitely form the next government. The government he promised to form is what is in power today. He said this about two clear years before the general elections. Like a good omen, it accurately came to pass - on a first round. We are approximately two years to the next elections. Point, winning or losing in that contest is likely to be determined by your next move, now.

A background note if you do not mind. There have been a few by-elections after the 2013 General Election: in Kajiado Central and Kabete, Makueni and Bungoma. From the results and with the danger of oversimplifying a complex animal, the views of the electorate seem 'intact 2013'. In other words, if there was a presidential contest again, unfortunately, the script of 2013 will be replayed; marginal JAP victory, Supreme Court contest and continuation of the current status quo.

Prior to this, we have to deal with two preliminaries. Why you? In Kenyan politics, with due respect to other contestants, you seem the only earthmover. Most others, save for two heavyweights, merely ride on waves or earn bonga points for opposing you. More importantly, however, is that whatever structures you leave after retirement will be what will define the political architecture for another generation. If you do not draw the plan well, several years down the way, nothing much would have changed, to the chagrin of young democrats of our Republic. Do you really have a game plan for 2017? Weka kwa meza.

First, JAP is composed largely of the communities around Mt Kenya and the Kalenjins. By virtue of being in the 'Presidency', it is difficult to convince the mountain nation to vote otherwise. You have to target the Rift Valley vote block.

Secondly, Kenyan politics has taught us time and again that the main consideration for joining political parties by a community is if 'our man' is there. Not just there, but what he or she is running for. If one is running for a presidential seat and another a second-tier seat, the one running for  president is supported.

This view is backed up by a real example. Consider Charity Ngilu's and Mr Kalonzo's Kamba nation support over the years. The person running for president always has the entire block behind him/her. The Rift is no exception. If Mr Ruto remains His Excellency's running mate, then you will have to pick Isaac Ruto as your running mate and, guess what, the Rift Valley will shift camp from JAP to CORD.

Forget about your tours there, that is inconsequential. This is the real deal. This is no magic or rocket science, it is just playing the joker at the right time. It is, in chess terms, a check mate. It is a real political implosion, your kind of stuff in politics. Tinga style! We suggest you revisit Thomas Kuhn's discourse on paradigm shift. It has relevance to this discussion.

We could be very wrong, but as it is, the Rift Valley is seemingly up for grabs. This may be the reason Baringo Senator Gideon Moi is emboldened to go up and down the region reinventing the party whose symbol is the cockerel - the party of choice in Kenya for the longest time.

When you visited Marakwet with Mr Kalonzo, wasn't this the same feeling you got? We think his reading of the mood is accurate. The Rift Valley could be ready for some change, which you can make bigger.

We think you have answers and the timing is right. The wise words of the legendary Prime Minister of Singapore, the late Lee KuanYew, on the task of leadership providing or creating a strong framework for their populace to utilise for their well being comes in handy.

But Baba you seem deficient here, if management of ODM is anything to go by. Hence the reason informing our advice in the parting shot below, on a position you should settle for. What JAP will consider doing in that event is to have the President run as deputy, but the population will not buy into that which will result in considering the Western alliance for options – including the men they avoided last time, Musalia Mudavadi and Eugene Wamalwa.

We know the Luhya vote is intact and your opponents will have to shop around for novel options. Even if UhuRuto considers Russian President Vladamir Putin's formula of a few years back, it won't produce the winning formula against the proposed juggernaut.

We think this will give CORD the real chance in the 2017 contest with you as the king maker and you can have your pension to boot without conditions and or kelele. Period.

Yours for the real contest.