Kenyans could pick future presidents from top performing county governors

There’s a new school of hard knocks — a proving ground — for Kenyan politics. It’s the county — the single most radical invention of the 2010 Constitution. Methinks the political class, especially MPs, didn’t know the import of the county when they acquiesced to it. The county — a piece of earthly geography, is going to upend politics as we know it. Take this to the bank — the county is going to neuter political mandarins who hitherto have suckled at the breast of the tribe. It will metaphorically kill many senior politicos, and give birth to a new generation of can-dos. Take it from me — the county will cannibalise the tribe as the pivot of political mobilisation. Let me elaborate.

First, the county has already started to marginalise Nairobi, once the epicentre of power and patronage. It’s Nairobi that every tribal kingpin has sought to capture. That’s because all the pork was sliced and shared in Nairobi. State House, to be exact, was the slaughterhouse for the national pig. That’s where you went to get your morsel. Stories are legion of folks disappearing into the labyrinth of State House only to emerge with a pregnant briefcase. That’s in the process of obsolescence. The reason is that, in spite of the gluttonous corruption endemic in Nairobi, the bell has been rung. Kenyans will starve the beast at the centre and take the money to the counties if the thieving continues.

What’s my point? Kenya is set to become a virtual federal state where counties will wield enormous power over the purse. The push by the governors and CORD for an even steeper devolution is ironically being given purchase by the central government in Nairobi. This is the point — Kenyans are concluding that there’s no point in letting Nairobi keep the bulk of the national budget if all it does is pilfer it through corrupt deals.

That’s why voters will choke the national government in a bathtub like the proverbial baby. Make no mistake about this — the central executive will increasingly become a ceremonial husk empty of power. Counties will decentre and marginalise Nairobi. Machakos County has shown the way.

Second, investors are flocking to the county. The Kenyan diaspora, with its enormous economic muscle, is now overlooking Nairobi and putting money in the counties. Foreign companies and the diaspora are flocking the untapped countryside — once derided as rural — to build hotels, mansions, clubs, shopping centres and entertainment spots. They are establishing farms raising and growing everything — snails, cash crops, livestock, grain, you name it. With this boom comes electrification — solar and grid. Where water is scarce boreholes are being dug daily. Nightlife and other coveted middle class amenities — once available only in Nairobi and a few other urban centres — are mushrooming everywhere. Who needs Nairobi anymore? There is a discernible stampede from Nairobi back to the county.

Third, the shift of the elite from Nairobi to the county is going to move the gravity of politics to the latter. It’s true the national government — the legislature and the executive — will still be important. But the locus of real politics is going to be local. In fact, MPs who spent all their time yapping, drinking, and misbehaving in Nairobi will become extinct. The hated MCAs — who must get their act together or face the axe — will become significant political players. They will have inordinate influence on who becomes Governor, MP, and Senator. Only those who keep the people’s money safe, and use it to visibly raise standards, will survive. Transparency will eliminate many a sticky finger.

Fourth, the most powerful political actors in the country will not be Cabinet Secretaries, MPs, Senators, or even Principal Secretaries. No, Madam. The Governor, the numero uno in the county, will tower above all others. Just like the United States, the governor’s mansion will become the proving ground for the presidency.

Get ready, Kenya, to start picking your presidents from among the governors. The governor who can demonstrate that she understands the real needs of actual people will merrily dance her way to State House. If you doubt me, just take a tour of Kenyan counties three years into devolution. You will see with thine eyes who’s working, and who is idling. The doers will go to the top.

Lastly, the county will slay the demon of the tribe. The county will de-tribalise Kenyan politics and return us to politics of substance. By logic, governors care more about their counties than about ethnic politics at the centre. As we’ve seen in the Council of Governors, it’s substance that’s driving them. Methinks that governors will soon start talking about fielding their team for State House — picking a presidential nominee and her running mate. This will kill the Big Five’s lock on power.