The city versus rural areas: Are the roles reversing?

Motorists plying the Nairobi–Nyeri route or Nakuru route must have noted the massive traffic jams on Sunday afternoon as Kenyans troop back to the city.

Flights to ‘rural towns’ are also fully booked over the weekends. Where do we go over the weekends? And why now? One of the simple measures of affluence is obsession with nature; it could be visiting national parks or playing natural games like golf or polo. If you can’t get any of these, you could visit the countryside, breath fresh air and escape the pressure cooker that is Nairobi.

While cities have traditionally attracted the poor, looking for jobs and opportunities, the rural areas have reversed the roles, attracting the affluent, those looking for space, rest and recently economic opportunities. Noted the new hotels and petrol stations coming up in the counties? Are they anticipating the oil boom? Noted the proliferation of holiday homes?

Though cities or towns attract lots of people particularly the young and ambitious, they seem great places to make money but not live in. They even try to mimic the country side by having green areas from parks and artificial lakes like the one at Uhuru Park.

It seems that despite all the jokes and stereotypes about the countryside, it is a place we all admire, sometimes secretly, sometimes openly as we boast of our plots, shambas and for the very few ranches.

Unfortunately, this admiration of the rural areas is diluted by the fact that it is the graveyard. Lots of people will be buried in the countryside, not because of lack of cemeteries in the towns, but because the traditions demand so. We all recall high profile cases centered on where one should be buried.

The admiration of the countryside is not unique to Kenya. It is common in other countries. Do you recall the log cabins in American writings? In UK, the landed gentry hunt foxes (poor animal) in the beautiful countryside. In other nations, the countryside is not a place of poverty and hopelessness.

Does the popularity of holiday homes, often deep in the countryside a sign of rising affluence? The inclusion of golf course in the new developments is an indicator the target group is the affluent, though not all that play golf are rich. The availability of land is another factor.

Should we celebrate this reversed flow, from the large cities to the small cities or rural areas? That was the dream of those who framed our 2010 Constitution. But the shift to the rural areas is not entirely driven by new political dispensation, it is all economics.

Land has become expensive and scarce in the major urban areas and speculators and those genuinely in need of land are following the land where it can be found. Pimping land with amenities like golf courses, gated communities and green houses entices people to buy cheap land expensively.

Some observers have wondered if there is a critical mass of the affluent to buy into all these properties. But clearly, Kenyans’ economic inspirations are unrivalled. The rise of holiday homes is only rivalled by the mall fever. The supermarket is now old fashioned.

Many economists would want to know if the two phenomenons are driven by economic fundamentals or are bubbles. I think the earlier. The desire for stress free life has always been intertwined with our DNA. What matters is how this life is packaged. In Kenya today, it is about where you live, 365 days and where you get your basics, from food to water and other services. The suppliers of holiday homes and malls know that.

Accumulate wealth-

The holiday homes and malls are driven by another phenomenon, international travels. Lots of Kenyans have travelled to developed countries either as students or even for leisure. They are willing to bring home new ideas like malls and holiday homes.

Where does the money for holiday homes and malls come from? Most Kenyans will quickly say corruption. But check carefully who is buying into holiday homes, it is likely to be men and women in their 40s and above. They have had enough time to accumulate wealth-though we cannot rule out a few corrupt people.

The truth is that liberalisation of the economy in the early 1990s created opportunities to make money. May be we are finally reaping the fruits of that policy decision. That money must be put into some use from malls to holiday homes. Foreign investors driven by the future growth prospects are also bringing in lots of money into our economy.

Holiday homes and malls show that Kenyans never stop dreaming of better lives. Noted that even the biggest malls have gates for pedestrians? The malls and holiday homes shows that Kenyans are moving into higher utility or indifference curve.

And oil boom becomes a reality; investors in these properties will have been ahead of their time. With once leafy suburbs like Lavington joining Zimmerman in concrete, more will shift to “rural areas”.

Unfortunately, the optimism of Kenyans both the humble and the affluent is drowned by political noise, which has risen several decibels as 2017 approaches. Luckily holiday homes, malls and our aspirations will outlive politicians and their political parties.