Presidential race and the delicate balancing act of picking out perfect running mate

By PUBLIC WATCHDOG

Today, presidential candidates face a daunting task of coming up with a winning formula amidst fierce competition anticipated in next presidential race. At the core is the question of choosing a running mate in a delicate balancing act, not only of character of the individual, but more importantly, influence and numbers of supporters. Yes, not just supporters from the community but drawn from the wider Kenyan population.

The more the level of influence, the better it is in the wider scheme of political business as numbers do make a decisive difference in any political equation. Individual’s personal traits also matter as such an individual must be a loyal pragmatist not only to the political party’s ideals, but also in demonstrated commitment towards the team’s realisation of a national transformative agenda with proven credentials.

Heir-apparent

A pragmatist loyalist is no sycophant or political actor akin to self-actualisation at the expense of wider national issues.

What then, are the other compelling factors in the horizon?

First, we must underscore the role of a running mate and its place in the pecking order with respect to positions of political power and authority in assuming the position of Deputy President in the event of his/her side winning a presidential election.

The Constitution makes the Deputy President heir-apparent therefore, potentially , the nominee can succeed in the presidency in case of incumbent president’s incapacitation and/or impeachment — the events happening after two years of a presidential election.

If the presidency were to fall vacant for any reason before the expiry of two years, then, a fresh election shall be held during which time the Deputy President shall act as president. Thus, the position of Deputy President is a key governance plank and the electorate must, therefore, equally scrutinise running mates in the same way they would presidential candidates.

Thus, jointly, candidate and running mate must be assessed as workable leaders, and that is why due to the dictates of the new Constitution, Kenyans will, for the first time, have an elected Deputy President.

Secondly, the predictability of the top leadership has been assured and trading on the position of Deputy president-in future-appointment promises value since political support has been eliminated.

2008 photo finish

Kenyans will have an early opportunity to judge the presidential teams. But who will not be anyone’s running mates and why?

Prime Minister Raila Odinga cannot be anyone’s running mate. Why? He is the Prime Minister and in the last election stood at the finishing line in a presidential race, with Mwai Kibaki current President with a photo finish.

No, one it is said we will ever know who won the last election, but everybody talks like they know. The two protagonists eventually shared the spoils in the form of Grand National Coalition Government with great human cost.

The rest is history! Raila’s age, position of influence and status makes it his last chance for presidency.

Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka will certainly be in the presidential race come what may, as it is alleged to have been promised to him for his support in saving the Kibaki presidency. But will this work, given thatKenya’s political leaders have proven their capacity not to honour any publicly made promises, let alone political ones done in private?

Long-serving VP

Then, comes Prof George Saitoti a long-serving vice President and Minister for Finance under the former President Moi’s regime and Cabinet minister under the Kibaki administration. The birds say, that he could be the surprise alternative presidential candidate for central Kenya but is he?

Thirdly, we have Uhuru Kenyatta still holding Deputy Prime Minister portfolio and William Ruto, former Cabinet minister jointly facing proceedings at The Hague’ International Criminal Court (ICC). They will not (during the first run) be anyone’s running mates but possibly in the second round.

Why and how? That is, if, the situation allows them to run for presidential elections and not become king makers?

This is the scenario Public Watchdog prefers to settle for once and for all in Kenya’s political landscape. Why is this? We must end, the: If-we-had-run political romanticism. It is obvious each one will fail to galvanise support from their communities, if they were to become the other’s running mates.

That is the hard reality, given the entrenched suspicion among supporters who are not only being rallied by a common enemy, in this case the ICC’s quandary and Railaphobia.

Finally, in the likely event that the presidential race goes for a re-run, then, political dynamism will make an interesting preposition. How?

If any of the two become second in the presidential race, then a joint candidature with the other becoming a running mate is assured amid serious legal landmines. Who will be first, second and third? Is it possible Raila will come first, Uhuru second, Ruto third, and believe it or not Kalonzo fourth?

Could kingmakers make Kalonzo king? What if Uhuru’s running mate is prevailed upon to step down for Ruto and is traded for a Cabinet Secretary position? Could Raila’s also present Mudavadi the race and opt out of the re-run so as to re-draw the ultimate supremacy political battle in a Kenya history in a Kenya-is-bigger-than-anyone-of-us scenario?

How can the first race be won outright? This is food for thought for strategists in this matter of compelling public interest!

-The author is an opinion leader who prefers to remain anonymous.

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