A never-ending political war, but who really could become President and how?

Today, the Public Watchdog delves into the murky world of politics and considers the factors that could re-define the political landscape — catch all actors flatfooted and turn political tables in a manner yet to be envisioned.

This would be of interest to all political master-strategists across the political divide, as it is a political journey with enormous risk and landmines that will claim many in their quest for the Kenyan presidency.

But how this situation unfolds will be influenced to a great extent not only by factors that would define change and how they resonate with Kenyans, but more so by the political tactics, shrewdness and manoeuvres played by strategists and political actors alike.

The pertinent question remains: Who will cross the finish line first? Will any of the leading lights eventually take the lead? Or could a pacemaker upset everyone? Who are the kingmakers and can the electorate ignore their influence? What could redefine the political landscape in the never-ending war for political supremacy? What could cause the electorate to dramatically think, "Kenya First, and Tribe/Community Second"? How can a Third Force be re-engineered in a most defining way by either competing sides?

These constitute key questions that could re-define the political landscape, informed in large part by the actions of men and women presently active and those yet to emerge in the coming months, weeks, days and hours, in the murky political waters.

But who are they and what, then, could be the winning prepositions?

First, let us consider the Kalonzo Musyoka factor: Yes, what a bad week it was for a man who is Kenya’s current Vice-President and the 11th since Independence!

Heightened distrust

Why? Last week, either by his misjudgement and those of his political handlers or designs of his political adversaries, he certainly looked like a man under political siege. But is he? Whatever the characterisation, it is imperative for Kalonzo to rethink his political strategy and his advisers.

Why? The Vice-Presidency office could prove to be a liability if it is not underpinned by a strong political agenda for Kenya.

The story of 11 individuals who have held the position since Independence is one of mixed fortunes, with only former President Daniel arap Moi and current President Mwai Kibaki having ascended to the presidency.

Many of the other previous holders of the position found it to be a liability, leading to resignations and/or loss of parliamentary posts in subsequent General Elections, as it happened to Mr Musalia Mudavadi and Mr Moody Awori.

Internal Security Minister Prof George Saitoti, Deputy Prime Minister Mudavadi and Kalonzo are still trying their luck for the presidency.

And the question remains: Will this year bring forth success to one of them or will other players prove more deserving of the position? What could change the fortunes of either Kalonzo or Mudavadi?

Secondly, it is essential to underscore that with the heightened level of distrust, suspicion and machinations, it is difficult to cultivate workable alliances that could prove to be dependable structures of governance.

Even within the so-called G7 grouping, the events of last week showed that there are deep-seated differences.

If anyone is yet to tell him, Kalonzo needs to re-think and search for another winning formula to stay relevant and valuable.

The Mudavadi factor

He must extend an olive branch and open preliminary discussions with other groupings, possibly with Prof George Saitoti and surprisingly, maybe even his perceived adversary, Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

How? In politics, it is an acknowledged fact that there are no permanent enemies — only permanent interests!

It is through such action that the VP will re-ignite interest, as he should not be seen as desperately following the trio of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr Wiliam Ruto and Mr Eugene Wamalwa.

Thirdly, the Mudavadi factor is generating interest with respect to his decision to challenge his party leader in the nomination, in a way that is good to his brand and possibly his party.

Why? If he had not challenged his boss, he would have devalued himself and lost influence even in his backyard.

So, go Mudavadi, but remember: Mudavadi could also still be a very useful and strong alternative presidential candidate.

A third surprise force — not as some expect — is if Mudavadi jumps out of ODM.

But surely, how? Many will ask. If he does not win, should he remain in ODM? Could jumping ship give credence to a perception that he may be a project of others, and devalue his growing standing as a leader?

Compelling case

Could a dramatic situation emerge that will force a re-run of two presidential candidates, and galvanise everyone against Raila? If that were to happen, could wisdom and political strategy suggest that Raila opt out and Mudavadi takes the mantle as a candidate with someone else as running mate and still win the elections?

Yes, a scenario that could present a compelling case at the Supreme Court! What if a leading candidate opts out of the race? Will it still be considered a re-run?

Can a running mate of a winning candidate be automatically considered a candidate in the second run or would it be back to fresh elections that will necessitate a 50 per cent-plus one winning expectation? These are matters of compelling public interest!

The author is an opinion leader who prefers to remain anonymous.

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