Alliance plan and Ruto factor add to Raila dilemma

Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula at Kinoru Stadium BBI rally. [Dennis Kavisu]

At political campaign rallies, ODM leader Raila Odinga relishes entertaining his supporters with imagined and spiced up football commentaries.

The drama depicts his desired outcome in the electoral competition. It places the Raila-led team on one side, with his opponents on the other. Invariably, the excitement peaks with Raila himself scoring the most vital goal.  

As in the drama, Raila is a magical political animal. He is a delight to watch when he is in his element. Yet it is also true that the magical political goal has eluded him throughout his political career.

He is the master civic ball juggler who has never scored the most critical goal. The new coronavirus arrived in Kenya in March, at a time Raila was busy working towards yet another political groundswell, his sights cast upon 2022, determined to place the ball in the net this time. The bug disrupted him. 

Historical accident

The new virus is a political historical accident. It could build or destroy careers throughout the world. A lot depends on what the germ will mean in individual countries. In Kenya, it could make or unmake Raila. In history, natural and man-made accidents have had profound impact on political careers. New leaders have risen where old ones have fallen. The surging Nazi threat in Europe destroyed the career of the British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in 1940.

Adolf Hitler and the fascists were the historical accident that suddenly thrust Winston Churchill into the saddle of greatness. Chamberlain had made numerous concessions to the insatiable Hitler. This happened against growing opposition from Churchill, the First Lord of the Admiralty. When Hitler finally invaded Norway in April 1940, Parliament forced Chamberlain to resign. Churchill took over and forever inscribed his name in greatness.

The unpopular poll tax law of 1990 was the historical accident that brought down Margaret Thatcher, after 11 years as the British Premier.

The assassination of JF Kennedy thrust Lyndon B Johnson in the White House in 1963. And the death of Franklin D Roosevelt placed Harry Truman in power in April 1945. In Kenya, the passing on of President Jomo Kenyatta on 22 August 1978 was the accident that placed Daniel arap Moi on the throne for 24 years. The Uhuru project of 2002 made Mwai Kibaki Kenya’s third president. 

Today, in the face of Covid-19, there have been speculations of a probable government of national unity (GNU) even before 2022. The speculations could be far-fetched, as they have yet to be verified. The closest affirmation has been a remark by Jubilee political gadfly David Murathe a few weeks ago. On the occasion of a visit to Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli at his home in Kajiado over Easter, Murathe hinted at the possibility of a GNU in the post-corona dispensation. The mechanisms of realising this could, however, be complicated, as they would entail walking through constitutional and political minefields. 

What is not in doubt, however, is that Covid-19 has disrupted the pre-March 13 bubbly political tempo in the country. It could change the direction of politics and leadership.

Ahead of the first positive Covid-19 case on that March day, the Raila political thunderstorm was gathering furiously, through the Building Bridges (BBI) rallies. A return of the rallies looks like a tall order. Indeed, a BBI referendum, as earlier thought, will place a huge financial strain on a country smarting under the weight of difficult budgetary options.

Chairman of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Wafula Chebukati has indicated that the commission would require between Sh12 billion and Sh15 billion to conduct a referendum. Even as it weighs options, the government must reckon with public sensibilities in the season of corona. Many things in the citizens’ lives have been postponed, with many others grounding to a halt. The financial agonies are being felt at individual and public levels. The Treasury has proposed to cut down official budgets virtually everywhere, while the State does its best to provide safety nets for the citizens.

Either way

The Council of Governors is up in arms over a Sh46 billion reduction in county budgets. At the individual level, many have lost their jobs while others have taken unpaid leave. Others have accepted pay cuts. The corporate and informal sectors are on the limp. It is within this context that political dynamics must unfold. Uhuru’s fortunes and Raila’s could go either way in the circumstances. 

The gamble is that citizens fatigued with endless political bickering may probably not mind a GNU, if it should end the unremitting hullabaloo. The attendant legal and political challenges aside, if this is pulled through, it could give the ODM leader a fresh springboard for his efforts to become President.

Things, however, are not sitting well in the Jubilee and government. That the cooperation has alienated Deputy President William Ruto is the biggest challenge the party faces to date. In essence, Uhuru has wooed and won over a formidable opponent and in the same deft move created a new adversary. The dreams of a post-corona power sharing arrangement cannot overlook the Ruto factor. Just like Raila, Ruto is now an institution in his own right, with a solid following of his own across the country. This cannot be ignored, or wished away.

Beyond this, the possibility of a post Covid-19 GNU, as well as the Raila presidential mobilisation is wishing away the Musalia Mudavadi factor. The architects think they can successfully ignore Mudavadi in his native Western Kenya and in the rest of the country. The politically fatal assumption is that Raila still has the sway he once had in Western. The facts on the ground, however, point to a Raila fatigue in Western. Some eyes are, instead, looking at Mudavadi for leadership. Indeed the strong feeling on the ground is that Mudavadi should go all the way to the wire, barring which the electorate is likely to be very unhappy with him. 

Deliberate efforts

It is not clear whether a Mudavadi-Ruto alliance is possible and what it would mean. Pollsters have their work cut out for them. So far, however, there have been deliberate efforts in the Raila camp to generate the perception that Mudavadi and Ruto could work together. The perception is cast to paint them as a weak formation.

The harsh realities of politics could, however, lead to a major upset if such a formation were to emerge. Besides a possible Raila fatigue, Ruto seems to have already run away with the substance of the Jubilee Party. What they are wrestling for is the shell. Accordingly, a Ruto-Mudavadi formation is not a light matter. The plot could get more complicated for Raila and Uhuru, should Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper Democratic Party and Moses Wetang’ula of Ford Kenya bring their weight and forces on board. Uhuru’s support for Raila, however, could be a major boon. It starts off with the advantage of the instruments of incumbency and especially the State machinery. Raila has previously complained that this machinery was used to deny him election victory in the period 2007 – 2017.

The odds would be in his favour this time, and it would be interesting to see how the same old dynamics he has decried would work this time. 

The support of the outgoing incumbent is, however, not a direct passport to victory. Uhuru and Raila will no doubt be aware of this, from the 2002 experience. President Moi then favoured Uhuru against more seasoned politicians as the Kanu candidate. None other than Raila led the Kanu rebellion that joined with Kibaki, Michael Wamalwa and Charity Ngilu to rout Moi and Uhuru. The possibility of a repeat against Uhuru and Raila is possible. The mood in Uhuru’s Mt Kenya region has been bad. As he walks into the twilight of his tenure, things could only get worse, as he will increasingly be seen as part of the past. 

Much of this will, however, depend on how the coronavirus affair turns out in the coming days. If Uhuru manages the bug and its immediate fallout well, he could remain a formidable voice not just in the Mt Kenya region, but across the country. You rule him out to your disadvantage. Conversely, if the bug should go wild and kill people on the scales that have been seen in the US, Italy, the UK and elsewhere in Europe, political games, by no matter whom, will be unwelcome. It can only be hoped that what the country is witnessing is a passing flu. 

Normal lives

People will want to get back their livelihoods. They will want to feed their children and to return them to school; to be free to mingle again, without being locked down by curfews and other fears and impediments. Anyone who appears to be selfishly posturing for political power risks becoming an object of public distaste. Besides, the big rallies that politicians use to curry favour with the public look uncertain, as social distancing guidelines are likely to linger on for some time. Early return to such rallies – and especially for the BBI – could be a major health risk and political risk, too. If they should lead to fresh infections and fatalities, the conveners could suffer a backlash of public anger.

The new assignment before Raila is to find new avenues of popularising himself and the BBI, while demonstrating that it is really not about him. As the BBI belongs to him and the President, the two may want to advise the review team to ensure the final report is sufficiently public spirited. They may also wish to use new technologies to popularise the initiative, in the place of traditional crowded rallies. This could have the added advantage of minimising tiresome physical political presence before publics that are tired of politics in harsh times. It is a very tight rope all the way.