Battle lines drawn: ODM's stance on zoning exposes fault lines with Ruto's UDA

ODM Party members with musician, Kenrazy (2nd right), during the ODM Youth Convention 2026, Jamhuri Grounds, April 20, 2026. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard] The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has escalated its political pushback against the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), declaring it will contest for power in 2027 with or without zoning, signalling rising tensions within the broad-based government and deepening internal rivalries. At a charged ODM Youth Convention in Nairobi on Monday, party leaders struck a defiant tone, rejecting claims that they have been absorbed into President William Ruto's administration while asserting their independence and readiness for a nationwide contest. Secretary General Catherine Omanyo delivered the clearest signal, outright dismissing zoning arrangements and affirming the party's intention to field candidates across the board. "We are going to field candidates from the presidency down to MCA positions. Zoning or no zoning, we do not fear anyone," she said. Her remarks reflect ODM's growing resistance to power-sharing formulas that could limit its reach, particularly in key battlegrounds such as Nairobi, the Coast and Western Kenya. Zoning, often used in coalition politics to avoid splitting votes, has become a flashpoint, with ODM leaders increasingly wary of conceding ground. Party leader Oburu Odinga framed the debate as one of unity and discipline, warning that internal divisions could weaken ODM's bargaining power ahead of the 2027 General Election. ODM Party members consulting during the ODM Youth Convention 2026, Jamhuri Grounds, April 20, 2026. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard] "We want unity in the party. We have not sent anyone away; we have only disciplined those causing chaos. Democracy does not mean disorder. It means order," Oburu said. His remarks come against the backdrop of simmering tensions within ODM, which has been split between factions aligned to Oburu and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna. The disagreement centres on the party's approach to the 2027 election and its relationship with President Ruto. Oburu has previously indicated support for Ruto's re-election, suggesting a possible arrangement in which ODM would back his bid in exchange for a share of government positions. In contrast, Sifuna and his allies have pushed back, insisting that the party should maintain a clear opposition stance and arguing that the late Raila Odinga did not sanction such a shift. Saboti MP Caleb Amisi, an ally of Sifuna, said recently that the fallout signals the beginning of the end of any pre-election arrangement between ODM and UDA. "For William Ruto, Baba's death was a blessing in disguise because the party was left as an orphan and he stepped in pretending to be a father. In reality, he was intent on using the party to serve his own political interests," Amisi said. "Ruto's intention has always been to kill the ODM," he added. Oburu, however, defended ODM's current positioning, arguing that proximity to power is necessary to deliver tangible development. ODM Youth Convention 2026. [Kanyiri Wahito, Standard] "In opposition, you cannot construct roads or hospitals; you can only push the government. Moving forward, our party must be at the centre of power come 2027, whether alone or with other parties," he said. The stance has sharpened criticism from both within and outside the party, with rivals accusing ODM of compromising its independence. Suna East MP Junet Mohamed mounted a strong rebuttal, targeting former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua over claims that ODM has been swallowed by UDA. "This is a national party, not a village party. He has no capacity to lecture on ODM. His party cannot even compete with a single ODM county branch," Junet said. He insisted that participation in the broad-based government does not amount to subservience. "The broad-based government is not our party. ODM remains independent. Anyone who wants to engage us politically must come through the party," he said. Kisii Governor Simba Arati, who is also a deputy party leader, dismissed suggestions that ODM could lose influence in Nairobi. "I have heard people say ODM will not have seats in Nairobi-is he mad? Nairobi is purely ODM. Whether there is money or not, our dominance does not go down," Arati said. He also rejected claims that the party relies on state funding, terming them propaganda. "We don't need any money from the government. We can run our activities independently-we have enough resources," he said. Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir urged members to focus on grassroots mobilisation, describing the moment as a test of the party's resilience. "ODM was born in struggle and it will not be defeated. Power is not given-it is taken, and we can only take it if we are organised," he said. National Chairperson Gladys Wanga reinforced the party's expansive ambitions, signalling that ODM will field candidates at all levels, including in regions where zoning has been proposed. "We are going to have ODM leaders from MCA to the governor in Nairobi and across the country," she said. Speaking on Sunday in Kendu Bay Town, Wanga said the party is planning to conduct ODM youth conventions in the party's strongholds and is meant for seeking the views of the youth on the direction ODM should take. Wanga announced that the convention is going to begin in Nairobi before it is cascaded to various counties considered as strongholds of ODM. "We have begun programmes for our young people as a party. We are going to start a mega convention in Nairobi in which we want to hear the voices of our youth on the direction they want the party and our country to take," Wanga said. Despite the show of unity, internal tensions remain evident. Oburu's firm stance on discipline, including his fallout with Sifuna, underscores ongoing struggles to manage dissent. "Those who left the party were not chased away. If they want to come back, let them do so peacefully instead of tarnishing the party's name," Oburu said. The hardening stance has also drawn reactions from UDA. Secretary General Omar Hassan dismissed calls for zoning, insisting the party supports open competition. "Anybody who wants to vie against UDA in our strongholds is welcome, and we won't stop anyone. Similarly, we don't want anyone telling us where we cannot field candidates. If it's your stronghold, why are you worried?" Hassan said during a recent event in Mombasa. The tensions were further inflamed by Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku, who dismissed speculation that ODM could secure the deputy president's slot. "The seat belongs to Kindiki. There is no vacancy now and there will be none in 2027," Ruku said. As ODM rejects zoning and signals readiness to compete nationwide, the party appears to be reasserting its identity ahead of a high-stakes election. Whether this strategy strengthens its negotiating position or deepens internal fractures will shape both its future and the broader political landscape heading into 2027. The convergence of these dynamics, ODM's hardening stance against UDA, internal factionalism, and the rejection of zoning, points to a political formation in transition. The party is seeking to reassert its identity while positioning itself for a competitive and high-stakes 2027 election. By declaring that it does not fear zoning or any political opponent, ODM is signalling a broader strategy to compete everywhere, expand its base, and negotiate from a position of strength rather than compromise. Whether that approach will consolidate its influence or deepen fractures within both the party and the broad-based alliance remains a defining question in Kenya's evolving political landscape.

Battle lines drawn: ODM's stance on zoning exposes fault lines with Ruto's UDA

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Battle lines drawn: ODM's stance on zoning exposes fault lines with Ruto's UDA

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