Reality check: Why William Ruto's mountain climb is getting slippery

President William Ruto in Laikipia west during his tour of the Mt Kenya region on April 1,2025. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard] This time, four years ago, President William Ruto was a darling of the Mt Kenya region; he never needed to mobilise in order to get an audience, but things seem to have changed. His allies in Mt Kenya region are now forced to mobilise and ferry supporters so that whenever he visits the region, he gets the crowds to create a perception that he is still in charge. Before and after he was sworn into office, to become Kenya's fifth president, Ruto used to draw mammoth crowds at his rallies in the Mt Kenya region. His reception was organic as the mention of his name drove the electorate into a frenzy. All the elected leaders, including those at the grassroots, accompanied him to the meetings he convened. He was such a frequent visitor, especially to churches on Sundays and other social functions. Almost all leaders belonged to his UDA party, where he called the shots, and both elected and nominated endeared themselves to their leader. None dared to come late or to skip his functions, as that risked putting them at loggerheads with the electorate. To ride on his popularity, all leaders from County Assembly Members (MCAs), MPs, Women Representatives, to Senators and Governors in all the 11 counties of Mt Kenya region struggled to grab a photo op with the President as proof of loyalty and allegiance. However, things seem to have fallen apart, because he now has a few remaining loyalists, Ruto's loyalists, who do not always join him in his now rare visits to Mt Kenya region. On Sunday and Monday, Ruto was in Nyeri, where he visited Othaya, Mathira and Nyeri Town constituencies. Apart from local leaders and the National Assembly Leader of Majority Kimani Ichungwa, other leaders outside the county were a no-show, and out of all the governors, only Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha, besides host governor Mutahi Kahiga, attended. Yesterday, the President was in Laikipia to open a modern market at Rumuruti, where only his allies from the county, led by area governor Joshua Irungu, joined him. Others present included MPs Mwangi Kiunjuri (Laikipia East), Wachira Karani (Laikipia West), Sarah Korere (Laikipia North), and Woman Representative Jane Kagiri. The only other notable political figure from outside Laikipia was Samburu Governor Jonathan Lelelit, who had earlier hosted the President in his county as he launched the Nyota programme. While Ruto's allies in Mt Kenya region keep dodging him, probably because of his fallout with erstwhile deputy Rigathi Gachagua, leaders from other regions like Nyanza and Western have joined him whenever he visits their regions. When the president was in Migori last month, governors from the larger Nyanza region accompanied him. They included James Orengo (Siaya), Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay), Peter Anyang' Nyong'o and Ochillo Ayacko (Migori). Scores of local elected leaders were also there to receive him. Analysts believe one of the reasons why Ruto's allies do not accompany him is the fear of facing a backlash with the electorate due to some of the unpopular policies and programmes initiated by the government that do not sit well with the people. Christopher Mugwe, a political observer, said that with Ruto's visits coinciding with the controversial school placement, the MPs fear being booed for not delivering parents' complaints to the Head of State. "Ruto's visit in Mt Kenya comes at a time when a section of parents are agonising after their children were admitted to day schools that are far away from their homes, and the parents have registered their concerns with their representatives. Attending a rally where the President is present means that the MPs must address the matter and this may not sit well with the President," noted Mugwe. On his part, Bosco Mutegi, an analyst, observed that most of the leaders who support President Ruto have been fence-sitting since Gachagua was impeached in November 2024, thinking that Gachagua would campaign against them. Despite the backlash, some of the MPs who had abandoned the president are realigning with him, especially since he began looking for alternative pillars. "This is forcing Ruto's allies, who have been fence-sitting, to move out of their cocoons to start publicly 'selling' Ruto. Being a year from the General Election, it is high time the political class from the region made up their mind on which political alliance they want to belong to. If those in government or the opposition want to change camp, the time is now, and if it is not now, they will be late, as their seats will have been occupied," Mutegi opined. According to Mutegi, the decision by former Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria to rejoin Ruto's camp was informed by the realisation that politicians strategising for the 2027 game plan were fast joining their preferred camps and that his continued fence-sitting would damage his political future. "While it is true that not many of Ruto's allies have been accompanying him in his meetings, the reason they have started joining him is mainly because of Gachagua's dwindling political fortunes. If the election was held last year, Gachagua could have scooped about 50 percent of the total seats, but as things stand, he can only manage 30 percent," said Mutegi. According to Timothy Wanyonyi, a political observer, the politicians were doing their political calculations across the country before making a bold decision of joining either the Opposition, the government, or the third force, which could be in the offing. "In Kenya, elections are not won because of the development track record, but because of being politically correct. Aspirants who do not align with the popular political party owned by the popular politician may lose seats, and that is why decisions have to be made before next year. Some will re-join the government, while some in Ruto's camp will shift camps," Wanyonyi added. He gave an example of Kahiga who has been flip-flopping between supporting Ruto's United Democratic Alliance and Gachagua's Democracy for Citizens Party. On Sunday, Kahiga affirmed that he was still an active member of the UDA party and that he would continue supporting President Ruto, while a day before, he welcomed Gachagua in Nyeri town, asserting that the county would continue supporting him as he continues to make political friends nationally with the aim of forming the government in 2027. "This is a phase that, like all politicians, Kahiga is facing, but with time, he will make up his mind after gauging and conducting private polls to determine who between Ruto and Gachagua may prolong his political lifeline," he noted.

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