ODM turns 20 as opinion split on path to power after myriad deals

ODM party leader Raila Odinga with other ODM party leaders cut a cake to mark ODM 20 years in existence. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is celebrating 20 years since it was formed, but after many attempts, its presidential candidate, Raila Odinga, has failed to capture power. Why have the party and its candidate fallen short? It also appears that the party heavily depends on Raila's larger-than-life image for its survival, and it may not survive without his support and followership. Is the party going to work with UDA next? All indications point to a done deal similar to previous handshakes that has seen the party be in power without winning it through the ballot. Whereas Raila has been described as an enigma because of the way he handles his politics, ODM too has had to bear the tag since in its 20 years of existence it has perpetually been in opposition and government at the same time. Raila appears to be tightening his control on the party despite his advanced age, showing little sign of creating an alternative ODM leadership. He briefly handed over the reins to Governor Anyang' Nyong'o in an acting capacity when he was campaigning for the African Union seat. Political analysts argue that the party has helped raise political awareness in the country, but it did not rise to power in four attempts due to inconsistent messaging and deal-making from its leadership. "The leadership keeps on changing to join those ODM opposed after each election. That does not inspire confidence among party supporters. A leader should be steadfast in pushing for the same ideals even if he loses instead of joining those who defeat him," says analyst Prof Gitile Naituli. The party has gone through four election cycles since the 2007 presidential polls when Raila lost a closely contested election against President Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU), which is now almost non-existent. ODM has therefore performed fairly well, given the short lifespan of political parties in the country. Only KANU and Ford Kenya have survived longer than ODM. The ODM party was formed with a lot of fanfare and huge expectations in 2007 when it was registered shortly after its leaders, led by Raila, spearheaded the "No" campaign to defeat a referendum that sought to change the constitution in November 2005. "The party started well with a group of very strong leaders, but it gradually turned into a one-man show. I doubt if it can survive without Raila Odinga now," says political analyst Martin Andati, who has worked with the party in the past. To defeat the referendum, Raila, Joe Nyagah, and Najib Balala from the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), along with Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto (KANU), rallied the country against President Kibaki and his team. They then transformed the "No" campaign into ODM, with all five leaders creating a top leadership organ called The Pentagon. The new opposition wave swept across the country like a hurricane. However, Raila quickly fell out with Ruto, who was a very strong voice in ODM, and some Rift Valley MPs who had also jumped ship from KANU to join ODM. Those who remained, like Balala and Nyagah, were also sidelined as the current ODM leader took full control of the party. Andati argues that ODM has behaved as a party that is not committed to winning elections due to the many handshakes Raila has engaged in after every presidential poll since 2013, when it lost to Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party. Unlike other democracies such as Britain, where the minority remains firmly principled after losing elections, ODM has failed to play that role effectively. Some of its members have now either joined the majority in parliament or have been appointed to the executive. "It appears Raila always forgets the ideals which ODM supporters believed in when he sits at the table to negotiate for half of the loaf. They use the party to mobilise for change, as was the case with the NADCO report last year, and then it later turns out that it was just done for self-aggrandisement," says Andati. ODM leader Raila Odinga with other ODM party leaders during celebrations to mark ODM 20 years in existence. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] Due to the party's eagerness to join government after losing elections, many people, especially the youth on social media, now do not believe ODM can fulfil the promises it continues to make. The party leader has also been faulted for hand-picking party officials after every election, as was the case when Chairman John Mbadi was recently replaced after he joined the executive. "He has really personalised the party. How come it is now over 10 years since the party held elections? All officials are just hand-picked by Raila himself to fill vacancies that emerge or whenever changes are made," says Andati. Over the years, the party has also become increasingly intolerant of criticism, especially from open-minded leaders holding different views from those being advanced by the party leader. President William Ruto has now hinted at a possible grand coalition in the offing between UDA and ODM. Raila has also engaged in what he is calling wide consultations to decide the future direction of the party after he lost the AU secretariat seat. Some leaders, like Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, have expressed their opposition to the party having any working relationship with UDA: "Let me tell you that Ruto will not win any election even if he is supported by Raila," Sifuna said last week in reference to the much-touted realignment. Those comments appear to have irked the likes of Makadara MP George Aladwa, who is now threatening to kick Sifuna out of the party because he is allegedly working with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka. Prof Naituli thinks ODM should concentrate more on organising itself to win elections because it has already proven its capability by coming close on several occasions. "They should plan properly by working with like-minded people who want genuine change and concentrate on getting high voter registration in their strongholds. They should protect the vote at polling and tallying centres and also have their own tallying headquarters," says Naituli. ODM leader Raila Odinga with other ODM party leaders during celebrations to mark ODM 20 years in existence. [Benjamin Sakwa, Standard] In the past, ODM has emerged as the main party in all coalitions, starting with CORD in 2013, NASA in 2018, and Azimio One Kenya in 2022. Now it appears another handshake with President Ruto is being arranged. The party says it is pushing for inclusivity through working with President Ruto because the challenges the country faces can only be overcome when people stand together by putting the interests of the nation above all else. "ODM pledges to continue holding the government accountable while offering pragmatic solutions to the issues affecting our people," says Raila. Last year, the party conducted what it called grassroots elections and announced the revitalisation of grassroots structures through recent elections, which the party said allowed it to reconnect with its supporters and articulate their aspirations more effectively. However, national elections have never been held since the last exercise in 2014, which was marred by hundreds of men in black who had been hired by senior leaders in the party to cause chaos at the Kasarani gymnasium. A group of youths posing as private security were stationed outside the hall, where they mingled with delegates. A senior party official is said to have given out Sh200,000 to procure the black jackets for the goons, who destroyed seats and tables when elections began. Those elections led to the departure of the then Secretary General Ababu Namwamba, who had campaigned for change in ODM using the "ODM Fresh" slogan. He shifted his allegiance to William Ruto's Jubilee side in the 2017 elections. Ruto and Raila have had a love-hate relationship since their time together in ODM. In October 2009, then ODM Chairman Henry Kosgey blamed Ruto for financing some civic leaders in parts of the Rift Valley region to wreak havoc in the party and undermine then Prime Minister Raila. Despite warnings, voters shifted with Ruto to the United Republican Party, which later merged with Uhuru's The National Party (TNA) to form Jubilee. Raila has over the years tried hard to make ODM a national party but some of his close allies have fought hard to make sure key positions like party chairman remain rooted in his Nyanza backyard.

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