Raila Odinga, William Ruto raise stakes with 'cat and mouse' campaigns

Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition presidential candidate Raila Odinga and Kenya Kwanza’s William Ruto were this week in Mt Kenya region to canvas for votes in a pattern that has increasingly become familiar.

While Ruto was in Isiolo County visiting Garbatulla, Kinna and Isiolo town, Raila was in Nyeri, landing at Chaka in Kieni and cruising to Karatina in Mathira, Mukurwe-ini, Othaya and Nyeri town.

What is interesting is the campaign routes the two have been taking by touring where the other has visited a few days earlier.

Raila was last in Meru on June 18, landing at Tigania and visiting Igembe before a main rally at Kinoru Stadium.

Ruto last weekend combed Tharaka Nithi with more intense stops at almost a dozen markets. He was last in Meru in March, visiting the three main regions before heading to Maara and Chuka Igambang’ombe.

Raila’s last visit to Isiolo took him to Garbatulla and Merti, both in Isiolo South, on June 21. Yesterday, Ruto started at Garbatulla and Kinna but opted to finish his campaign leg at Isiolo town which is in Isiolo North.

Raila’s visit to Isiolo had been a delicate balancing act, with political siblings contending for various county seats separated by the distance between Merti and Garbatulla. 

While Jubilee senatorial candidate Fatuma Adam Dullo, who is seeking a second term, and governorship candidate and former Nairobi County Majority Leader Abdi Ibrahim Hassan Guyo were at Garbatulla, other Azimio-affiliated contestants, including ODM candidate and former Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission chief executive Halake Waqo, were marooned in Merti.

Raila was in the same area on June 23, holding a chaotic rally rocked by sibling rivalry in Moyale and then also at the county headquarters of Marsabit town.

Just over a week later, Ruto will be holding rallies there today at both venues visited by his main competitor but with an intense programme that will also take him to Sololo, Loiyangalani, Illeret, Korr and North Horr.

Series of rallies

Other Mt Kenya counties where the two front-runners have held rallies within a week of the other include vote-rich Kiambu, Murang’a, Embu, Nyeri, Kirinyaga and Laikipia.

A look at the schedules of their running mates shows that they have also been on these whirlwind tours, especially in their home turfs of Nyeri and Kirinyaga but also further on in Embu, Meru and Laikipia.

Martha Karua, Raila’s running mate, last campaigned in Meru on June 16, which is where Kenya Kwanza’s Rigathi Gachagua will be next week.

On May 29, Ruto, flanked by Gachagua, made a comprehensive tour of Kirinyaga just 10 days after the May 17 homecoming by Karua shortly after she was named running mate.

Ruto also held rallies in Kiambu and Murang’a shortly after Karua’s victory lap.

Is all this coincidence? Hardly, agree players on both sides of the political divide as well as political commentators.

South Imenti MP Kathuri Murungi, who is the UDA senatorial candidate in Meru, said the circuit campaigns are a normal occurrence in the last months of a General Election.

Mt Kenya forays

“That is my observation in the last two elections, and I don’t see it as any different. It is also being witnessed in Western region. The only notable thing is that Mt Kenya is loyal to Ruto and an area where Raila wants to eat into the UDA vote. We are also keen to retain our lead,” said Murungi.

UDA Mukurwe-ini candidate and outgoing Nyeri Speaker John Kaguchia says the back and forth visits are mainly caused by Raila’s attempt to make inroads in the region. 

“They waited until they had Karua on board and now realise they need to market her so that she can attract votes,” said Mr Kaguchia.

But Nominated MP Maina Kamanda and Meru Jubilee senate hopeful James Mithika accuse the UDA camp of playing catchup.

“They have sensed defeat and that is why they are following us since our impact is huge on the ground,” said Kamanda. “The voters are, however, enlightened and know they have nothing much to offer.”

Dr Mithika argued that the UDA presidential candidate had a long history of seeking to erase the achievements of his rivals on the ground, citing his fallout with President Uhuru Kenyatta over development in the region.

“We have seen his message evolve in the last five years because his mortal fear is his perceived stronghold slipping away,” said Mithika. “Every time we undo his narrative, it is necessary for him to try and rework it.”

Prized region

Linford Mutembei of the Azimio-allied Mt Kenya Youth Caucus said the rallies were confirmation that both sides were treating the region as an important swing vote that will largely shape election results.

“Expect this to continue to the last minute. Damage control is most effective when it is immediate. For us, as for them, the preoccupation is that the candidate reaps the most they can,” said Mutembei.

But political analyst Amukowa Anangwe reckons Ruto has Mt Kenya under lock and key, and he will clinch victory courtesy of his investment in the region.

“It is not in doubt that Ruto has run over Mt Kenya time and again and Raila is trying to catch up. Ruto has, of course, to defend his territory. But this is not a swing vote. It is solidly an UDA vote,” said Prof Anangwe.

He added: “Why has President Uhuru Kenyatta kept off the campaigns? It is because he knows he is helpless as no single poll has ever put Raila ahead of Ruto in Mt Kenya.” 

In the vore-rich Narok County, Ruto and Raila have made frequent tours to attract critical voters and win the Maasai vote. Ruto is banking on outgoing Governor Samuel Tunai, former Labour CAS Patrick Ntutu, and outgoing Woman Rep Soipan Tuya, MPs David Sankok, Johana Ngeno (Emurua Dikirr) among others.

Raila has MPs Moitalel ole Kenta (Narok North), Gideon Konchellah (Kilgoris), Senator Ledama ole Kina and Charles Sunkuli and Narok Maasai Council of Elders chairman Kelena ole Nchoe in his corner.

Raila toured Narok on January 22, May 22, and June 28. Ruto was in the county on March 22, May 28, and June 18 in a span of six months.

Both of them have been keen on ensuring that they address key issues affecting the community, ranging from land rights and conservation of the Mau Forest complex - a key national resource in the region to youth unemployment.

Analysis of the voting in the region from 1992 to 2017, shows a pattern that is deeply rooted in ethnicity and political party affiliation. 

In Western, Raila was at the iconic Bukhungu Stadium, Kakamega, to woo the region’s voters who have supported his bid since 2007.

The Bukhungu meeting culminated Raila’s two-day tour of the expansive Kakamega County which saw him visit the northern, central and southern parts of the rural county with about 800,000 votes.

Raila’s team was headed by Azimio’s Western and Nyanza presidential campaign team leader Governor Wycliffe Oparanya who tagged along his Mombasa counterpart Hassan Joho to back Raila’s forays.

Top on the Azimio promise card in the region through the many visits has been the revival of the sugar sector and appointment of the region’s sons and daughters to lucrative positions.

Western promises

“When he was Prime Minister, Raila appointed Musalia Mudavadi, Ababu Namwamba, Oparanya, Fred Gumo, Paul Otuoma and many others to lucrative posts for free yet Ruto has placed conditions on you to appoint Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula to similar posts. Whom would you have as president between the two leaders seeking your votes,” posed Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli in one of the rallies.

The Raila meeting last week came a fortnight after Kenya Kwanza’s presidential candidate William Ruto held a series of rallies in western that saw him tour Kakamega and Bungoma counties.

The Deputy President’s promises include the revival of the sugar sector, the jua kali sector and a vow never to “betray” the region’s leaders.

The Mumias tour came a week after Ruto held yet another rally at Bukhungu Stadium on June 12 where he celebrated his clearance by IEBC to contest the presidency.

“I worked with Raila but he betrayed me, Wetang’ula, Mudavadi and many leaders from this region. We must form the next government and share it equitably,” Ruto said.

Ruto’s June 12 and June 17 tours came after Raila was in Bungoma at the tail end of May to rally Wetang’ula home county to vote for Azimio candidates.

More tours

During a rally in Tongaren constituency, Bungoma, area MP Eseli Simiyu, a former confidante of Wetang’ula led an onslaught on Kenya Kwanza saying the Mulembe Nation’s interests were safer in Azimio.

The Bungoma tour also saw former Unctad Secretary-General Mukhisa Kituyi, who dropped his presidential bid to support Raila, call on the women of the country to vote for the former premier since he had picked a woman running mate.

The Bungoma tour on May 28 came after Raila visited his Busia stronghold on May 26 where he called on the locals to vote for ODM in the six-piece fashion.

This was the most extensive of Raila’s tour in western where he also visited Mudavadi’s home county of Vihiga on May 24 and Trans Nzoia.

In the tours, Raila pledged to revive the sporting culture of the region and appoint Governor Oparanya to be Finance CS.

With 29 days until next month’s polls, sources close to Ruto in western Kenya says they will undo Raila’s gains by inviting the DP to visit the region.

[Wainaina Ndung’u, Steve Mkawale and Robert Amalemba]